Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is a “Super Cell Thunderstorm “? Here is the correct answer. A Supercell Thunderstorm is potentially the most dangerous of the convective storm types. Storms possessing this structure have been observed to generate the vast majority of long-lived strong and violent (F2-F5) tornadoes, as well as downburst damage and large hail. It is defined as a thunderstorm consisting of one quasi-steady to rotating updraft which may exist for several hours. Supercells usually move to the right of the mean wind. These are called “Right Movers” and they are favored with veering winds. Occasionally, these thunderstorms will move to the left of the mean wind. These thunderstorms are called “Left Movers”. These supercells typically don’t last as long as their “Right Mover” cousins and they usually only produce large hail (greater than 3/4 inch in diameter) and severe wind gusts in the excess of 58 miles an hour. Left Movers are favored when you have backing winds.
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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (“U” shape) takes over. The graphics for days 1-3 show a complex frontal system that moved through Oregon. The graphics for days 3-7 Wednesday through Sunday show a complex frontal system will slide through Oregon Wednesday and Thursday. Then a complex frontal system will be northwest of us next Sunday.
Note: Lane County residents will have to wait until Friday, November 1, 2024, at the earliest for the opening of the fall outdoor burning season. The season is typically scheduled to start on October 1st each year. However, the decision to delay has been jointly made by the Lane County Fire Defense Board and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).
ADVISORIES:
- NONE AT THIS TIME.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms, small hail possible), evening showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms, showers likely (70%) late Monday night (0.10 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
- Mostly cloudy with AM showers likely (70%), a mix of clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late at night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and a bit cooler Wednesday, then showers Wednesday night.
- lows 45-42 highs 58-55.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday (Halloween), partly cloudy with showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a bit warmer Friday, a (40%) chance of showers at night,
- A mix of clouds and sun with a (40%) chance of showers Saturday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) of showers Saturday night,
- Then mostly sunny and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of showers Sunday.
- highs 54-57 lows 42-37. (seasonal averages high 60 low 40)
Your College Football Weather Forecast:
Saturday October 26:
Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini at Autzen Stadium, Game time: 12:30 pm- The Ducks beat up on Illinois 38-9.
Beavers vs Cal Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley California: Game time 1:00 pm- The Beavers were clobbered by Cal 44-7.
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HOME WOOD HEATING ADVISORY:
Eugene & Springfield: GREEN – Fireplace and wood stove use permitted.
Oakridge and Westfir: GREEN – Fireplace and wood stove use permitted.
The use of pellet stoves is always allowed.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA.org)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms tonight (0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Patchy dense AM fog, mostly cloudy with showers and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday (0.10 in. of rain possible), evening showers, showers likely (70%) late Monday night (0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with AM fog, mostly cloudy and slightly warmer with a (40%) chance of showers Tuesday afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain likely (70%), rain and a bit cooler Wednesday afternoon, then showers Wednesday night.
- lows 48-44 warming to 46 Wednesday highs 58-59 cooling to 56 Wednesday.
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday (Halloween),showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms late Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with showers Friday, evening showers, a good (50%) chance of showers at night,
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of AM showers, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with a (40%) chance of showers Saturday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, just partly cloudy late Saturday night,
- Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, then just partly cloudy and a bit warmer Sunday afternoon.
- highs 54-62 lows 46-39. (seasonal averages high 61 low 43)
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday (0.10 in. of rain possible), evening coastal showers with coastal showers late tonight while inland evening showers likely (70%) and a good (50%) chance of inland showers late Monday night (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of AM showers, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with a (30%) chance of showers Tuesday afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers late Tuesday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and a bit cooler Wednesday, then showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night.
- lows 46-44 warming back to 46 Tuesday night and Wednesday night highs 63-64 cooling to 62 Wednesday.
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday (Halloween) and in the evening, showers late Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy rain showers Friday, showers at night,
- Mostly cloudy with a (%) chance of AM showers, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with a good (50%) chance of showers Saturday afternoon, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Saturday night,
- Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, then sunny and a bit warmer Sunday.
- highs 62-65 lows 45-42. (seasonal average high 61 low 46).
Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Mostly cloudy with evening rain and snow showers likely (70%), rain and snow showers late tonight (0.75 in. of rain possible, 2-5 in. of snow possible, snow possibly heavy at times),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain showers and snow showers Monday (0.50 in. of rain possible, 2-5 in. of snow possible), rain and snow snow showers Monday night (0.25 in. of rain possible, 1-3 in. of snow possible),
- Cloudy with a AM rain and snow showers, a mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon, a good (50%) chance of evening rain and snow, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain and snow showers late Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with showers and a slight (20%) chance of snow showers Wednesday, then rain and snow showers Wednesday night.
- highs 35-38 lows 32-26 warming to 29 Wednesday night.
- snow level above 8,000 ft. tonight through Monday night, 4,000 ft. Tuesday, 4,500 ft. Tuesday night, 5,500 ft. Wednesday, then 4,500 ft. Wednesday night.
- lows 37-27 highs 62-44 warming to 49 Tuesday .
- Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers (snow possibly heavy at times) and a bit cooler Thursday (Halloween), rain and snow showers Thursday night (snow possibly heavy at times),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with rain and snow showers Friday, a good (50%) chance of rain and snow showers Friday night,
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a good (50%) chance of rain and snow showers Saturday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening rain and snow showers, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain and snow showers late Saturday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with a (30%) chance of snow showers and a slight (20%) chance of rain showers Sunday afternoon.
- snow level 4,000 ft. Thursday through Saturday, 5,000 ft. Saturday night, and 6,000 ft. Sunday.
- highs 32-40 lows 29-25.