Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “Model Output Statistics (MOS)? ” Here is the correct answer. Model Output Statistics (abbrev. MOS) – the Hydrometeorological Center (HPC) produces a short range (6 to 60 hours) MOS (Model Output Statistics) guidance package generated from the NGM, GFS, and ETA models for over 300 individual stations in the continental United States. These alphanumeric messages are made available at approximately 0400 and 1600 UTC for the 0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles, respectively. Model Output Statistics are a set of statistical equations that use model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount for many cities across the USA. The statistical equations were specifically tailored for each location, taking into account factors such as each location’s climate.
________________
We’re between an Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (“Arch” shape) and an Upper Level Low Pressure Trough and surface High and Low Pressure centers. The graphics for days 1-3 show a weak cold front pushing through the Pacific Northwest Monday. The graphics for days 3-7 Wednesday through Sunday show no frontal activity pushing into or through Oregon during the period.
________________
Air Quality Index:
Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 29 in the Good category measuring Ozone.
Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 73 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.
Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 23 in the Good category measuring Ozone.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
________________
ADVISORIES:
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN AND AND THE FREEMONT-WINEMMA NATIONAL FOREST.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY MDT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS , THE BURNS BLM, AND AND THE VALE BLM.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS AND MALHEUR COUNTY.
- AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR JEFFERSON AND WASCO COUNTY.
- AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR CURRY COUNTY, JACKSON COUNTY, AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- THE PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY ISSUED FOR UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT TOLOVANA STATE PARK BEACH IN CLATSOP COUNTY HAS BEEN LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD STILL AVOID WADING IN LARGE POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, FROM HOWARD’S BAY SOUTH TO THE LINK RIVER DAM IN KLAMATH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE GALESVILLE RESERVOIR AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY.. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
__________
Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Clear this evening, partly cloudy late tonight,
- Mostly cloudy and cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday afternoon and Monday night,
- AM clouds and sun, sunny and a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon, clear at night,
- Sunny and a bit warmer Wednesday, then clear Wednesday night.
- lows 53-59 cooling to 52 Wednesday night highs 80-87.
- Sunny and a bit cooler Thursday, clear Thursday night,
- Sunny Friday, clear at night,
- Then mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday, clear Saturday night.
- highs near 86 lows 52-54. (seasonal averages high 86 low 52)
__________
Eugene-Springfield Pollen Count:
Grass Pollen: Low (3)
Weeds: Low (5)
Tree Pollen: Low (2)
Last counted: 7.23.23
Data courtesy of Oregon Allergy Associates.
__________
Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Mostly clear and hazy tonight,
- AM sun and haze, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday afternoon, mostly clear with evening haze, partly cloudy and hazy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Monday night,
- Some AM clouds, sunny and a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon, clear Tuesday night,
- Sunny and a bit warmer Wednesday, then clear Wednesday night.
- lows 56-60 cooling to 55 Wednesday night highs 86-88.
- Sunny Thursday and Friday, clear both nights,
- Then sunny and a bit cooler Saturday and Sunday, clear Saturday night.
- highs 88-86 lows 55-57 (seasonal averages high 88 low 58)
___________
Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Mostly clear with inland evening haze and late tonight while becoming mostly cloudy and hazy with patchy coastal drizzle late tonight,
- Mostly cloudy start, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with inland afternoon haze, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of coastal showers at night while mostly clear and hazy in the evening inland and mostly cloudy and hazy with a slight chance of inland showers late Monday night,
- Some AM clouds, sunny and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon, mostly clear at night,
- Sunny and a bit cooler Wednesday, then mostly clear Wednesday night.
- lows 55-59 cooling back to 55 Wednesday night highs 75-72.
- Mostly sunny Thursday, mostly clear Thursday night,
- Mostly sunny Friday, partly cloudy at night,
- Then partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday.
- highs near 72 lows 54-56. (seasonal averages high 67 low 54)
__________
Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Mostly clear and hazy with areas of smoke tonight,
- Mostly sunny and hazy with areas of smoke and a bit cooler Monday, partly cloudy and hazy with areas of evening smoke, mostly cloudy and hazy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers late Monday night,
- Some AM clouds with haze and areas of smoke, sunny and hazy with areas of smoke Tuesday afternoon, hazy with areas of evening smoke, clear late Tuesday night,
- Sunny Wednesday, then clear Wednesday night.
- free air freezing level 16,000 ft. falling to 15,000 ft. late tonight, 15,000 ft. falling to 14,000 ft. Monday afternoon, 13,000 ft. Monday evening, 15,000 ft. Tuesday and Tuesday night, then 14,000 ft. Wednesday and Wednesday night.
- lows 46-43 highs near 72.
- Sunny and a bit cooler Thursday, mostly clear Thursday night,
- Sunny and a bit warmer Friday, clear at night,
- Then sunny and Saturday and Sunday, clear Saturday night.
- free air freezing level 13,000 ft. Thursday, 14,000 ft. Thursday night through Friday night, 13,000 ft. Saturday and Saturday night, then 14,000 ft. Sunday.
- highs 72-75 lows 44-46 cooling back to 44 Saturday night.
__________
For all of your Eugene-Springfield and Lane County News, Weather, and Sports go to: EugeneDailyNews.com
_________