Jan
26.
Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “PDO“? Here is the correct answer. PDO is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation – a recently described pattern of climate variation similar to ENSO though on a timescale of decades and not seasons. It is characterized by SST anomalies of one sign in the north-central Pacific and SST anomalies of another sign to the north and east near the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska. It primarily affects weather patterns and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and northern Pacific Islands. Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO “events” persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics- the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies found evidence of just two full PDO cycles in the past century: cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990’s. Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known.
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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (“U” shape) is still controlling the weather over the Pacific Northwest along with a southerly airflow Atmospheric River. The graphics for days 1-3 show the complex frontal system moving into Oregon Friday, warm front first followed by the cold front. The graphics for days 3-7 Tuesday through Saturday show a the parade of complex frontal systems approaching the Pacific Northwest. There will be a cold front right along the coast moving in Thursday and next Friday.
Note: Willamette Pass, Hoodoo, and Mt Ashland are all open for skiing. Check their web pages for details.
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Air Quality Index:
Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 26 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 64 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.
Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 52 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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ADVISORIES:
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE PUDDING RIVER AT AURORA.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY FOR THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- A PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT BEVERLY BEACH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA CAN CAUSE DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, AND THOSE WITH A COMPROMISED IMMUNE SYSTEM SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AS THEY ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO TO ILLNESSES FROM WATERBORNE BACTERIA. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER, AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE AREA FROM THE ROSS ISLAND LAGOON TO RIVERPLACE MARINA IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CATCH AND RELEASE FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS. DRINKING WATER FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WILLAMETTE RIVER FROM ROSS ISLAND DOWNSTREAM (NORTH) TO THE AREA NEAR CATHEDRAL PARK IN PORTLAND, IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.DO NOT DRINK THE WATER.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ARRONS LAKE, BUT HAS BEEN LIFTED FOR PETE’S SLOUGH AND STURGEON LAKE ON SAUVIE ISLAND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AGENCY LAKE AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, FROM HOWARD’S BAY SOUTH TO THE LINK RIVER DAM IN KLAMATH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain, showers and a bit warmer this afternoon (0.50 in. of rain possible), showers tonight (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of AM showers, just mostly cloudy and a bit warmer Sunday afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), patchy fog with a slight (20%) chance of rain late at night,
- Patchy AM fog with a slight (20%) chance of rain, mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a good (50%) chance of rain Monday afternoon, then a good (50%) chance of rain Monday night.
- highs 60-68 cooling to 64 Monday lows 53-48.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a good (50%) of rain Tuesday, rain Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain at night,
- Mostly cloudy with showers Thursday and in the evening, rain and snow showers likely (70%) Thursday night,
- AM snow showers likely (70%), then showers and a bit cooler Friday night.
- highs 62-48 lows 49-39. (seasonal averages high 49 low 35)
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Home Wood Heating Advisory:
Eugene-Springfield: GREEN- Burning wood in wood stoves or fireplaces is allowed.
Oakridge: GREEN- Burning wood in wood stoves or fireplaces is allowed.
*Pellet stoves can be used anytime since they don’t produce the particulate smoke.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a bit warmer today and this evening (0.25 in. of rain possible), a good (50%) chance of showers late tonight (0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of AM showers (0.10 in. of rain possible), just mostly cloudy and a bit cooler Sunday afternoon, mostly cloudy at night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of rain Monday, then a (30%) chance of rain Monday night.
- highs 60-67 cooling to 65 Monday lows 52-50 warming to back to 52 Monday night.
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain and a bit cooler Tuesday, evening rain likely (70%), rain late Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain at night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Thursday and in the evening, rain and snow late Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain and snow, then rain and a bit cooler Friday afternoon.
- highs 62-50 lows 52-42. (seasonal averages high 51 low 37).
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with showers today (0.50 in.of rain possible) and in the evening, a good (50%) chance of coastal showers late tonight while inland showers likely (70%) late tonight (0.50 in.of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of AM showers (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), just mostly cloudy and a bit warmer Sunday afternoon, a slight (20%) chance of rain late at night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a (0%) chance of rain Monday, then cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Monday night.
- highs 62-67 cooling to 65 Monday lows near 52.
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of AM rain, rain likely (70%) and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon and evening, rain late Tuesday night and breezy,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain Wednesday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Thursday through Friday.
- highs 64-52 lows 50-42. (seasonal averages high 54 low 41)
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Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain, showers and a bit warmer this afternoon (1.00 in. of rain possible), showers tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of AM showers, a mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of showers Sunday afternoon, partly cloudy at night,
- Clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of AM rain, a mix of clouds and sun with a (40%) chance of rain Monday afternoon, then mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Monday night.
- snow level above 8,000 ft. tonight through Sunday, free air freezing level 10,000 ft. Sunday night, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday and Monday night,
- highs 43-48 lows near 38.
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a good (50%) of rain Tuesday, rain Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, evening rain with a slight (20%) chance of snow, snow late at night,
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain showers and snow, a bit cooler with snow showers Thursday afternoon, snow and rain showers Thursday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with snow showers and rain showers Friday.
- snow level 8,000 ft. Tuesday and Tuesday night, 6,500 ft. Wednesday, 5,500 ft. Wednesday night, 4,500 ft. Thursday, 3,500 ft. Thursday night, then 3,000 ft. Friday.
- highs 47-33 lows 39-26.
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