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Jul

14.

Still warm, but with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

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Sorry, but no winner this time. Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time this week. There was “active” weather in parts of Oregon recently, so I though my question should be about understanding those weather bulletins. The question is: what is the difference between a “Severe Thunderstorm Watch” and a “Severe Thunderstorm Warning?” Here is the correct answer. A severe thunderstorm watch (SAME code: SVA; sometimes referred to as “blue box” or “yellow box” by meteorologists and storm chasers) is issued when weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms. A severe thunderstorm watch can also be upgraded to a tornado watch as conditions warrant (in which case the existing severe thunderstorm watch, or a portion of it, would be replaced). A severe thunderstorm warning (SAME code: SVR) is issued when trained storm spotters or a Doppler weather radar indicate a strong thunderstorm is producing dangerously large hail or high winds, capable of causing significant damage.^[1] A watch must not be confused with a warning. A watch does not mean that the severe weather is actually occurring, only that conditions have created a significant risk for it. The warning means it is already happening.
I’ll have another weekly weather quiz question for you starting next Monday. Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count.

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Advisories: NONE AT THIS TIME.

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An upper level trough of low pressure will slide closer to us bringing some clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. That means lots of sunshine and warm weather for the Oregon Country Fair that runs through Sunday. The low is moving across Oregon with a slight chance of thunderstorms and will be followed by another trough of low pressure to continue our pleasant weather pattern. Early next week a closed low (brown circle) will slide south from Canada bringing us more clouds, but I don’t think we’ll see any precipitation. A frontal system will move through and stall next Thursday.

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The pollen count for the Eugene-Springfield area is:

Grass- Moderate (17) (Observation: It looks like the grass pollen season is just about over.)

Trees- Low (2)

Data from Oregon Allergy Associates www.oregonallergyassociates.com.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis: Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms this evening, mostly cloudy late tonight and Sunday AM, partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday evening, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Monday night and Tuesday AM, a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, then a slight (20%) chance of showers late Tuesday night lows near 54 highs 77-80 cooling to 76 Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday highs near 82 lows near 54. (seasonal averages high 82 low 52)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg: Partly cloudy tonight, mostly cloudy Sunday AM, mostly sunny Sunday afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy Sunday night, cloudy Monday AM, partly cloudy Monday afternoon, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Monday night, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night lows 58-54 warming to 57 Tuesday night highs near 80. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday AM, mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday AM, then mostly sunny Saturday highs 78-85 cooling to 83 Saturday lows 55-58. (seasonal averages high 84 low 56)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend: Partly cloudy this evening, cloudy with areas of fog late tonight, mostly cloudy with areas of fog Sunday AM, mostly cloudy in the afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle late Sunday night and Monday AM, mostly cloudy Monday afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday night, then partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night lows 55-52 warming to 56 Tuesday night highs 62-66. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday AM, then just mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Saturday highs near 64 lows near 57. (seasonal averages high 65 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades of Lane County: Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms this evening, partly cloudy tonight through Sunday night, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, a slight (20%) chance of showers late Monday night, a mix of cloud and sun with a slight (20%) chance of showers Tuesday AM, a slight (20%) chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, then partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Tuesday night free air freezing level 14,000 ft. tonight through Sunday night, 12,000 ft. Monday, snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday night through Tuesday night lows 48-43 warming to 48 Tuesday night highs 67-70. A mix of clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday AM, a (20%) chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, partly cloudy Wednesday night, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Thursday afternoon and evening, partly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday AM, then mostly sunny Saturday afternoon snow level above 8,000 ft. Wednesday, free air freezing level 12,000 ft. Wednesday night, snow level above 8,000 ft. Thursday and Thursday night, free air freezing level 13,000 ft. Friday, then 14,000 ft. Friday night and Saturday highs 67-72 cooling to 69 Saturday lows near 47.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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