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Here is my weekly weather quiz question. How do scientists forecast volcanic eruptions? Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.
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A high pressure (shaded “Arch” shaped area) is slowly moving away from us while a trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shaped area with blue arrows moving out of the Gulf of Alaska) is moving in behind the ridge sending waves of moisture at us. A frontal system slid through Oregon today ushering in colder air that will drop our temperatures from well above normal to below normal. Another frontal system, in a series of them, will push into Oregon next week with increasing the rain chances again.
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Advisories: A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY.
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis: Partly cloudy this evening, mostly cloudy and colder tonight, showers likely (60%) Thursday (0.10 in. of rain possible), mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms in the evening, a (40%) chance of showers late Thursday night (0.20 in. of rain possible), a (30%) chance of showers Friday AM, a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday night, a mix of clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of showers Saturday AM, then partly cloudy late afternoon and Saturday night lows 37-35 highs 49-46. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) of showers Sunday (Veterans Day), rain likely (60%) Sunday night and Monday (Federal Holiday), mostly cloudy with showers likely (60%) Monday night, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday, a (40%) chance of showers Tuesday night, then mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers Wednesday highs 50-53 cooling to near 50 Tuesday and Wednesday lows 42-39. (seasonal averages high 55 low 39)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg: Partly cloudy this evening, mostly cloudy and colder with a (30%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms late tonight (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), rain and snow showers with a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening (1-2 in. of snow possible), rain and snow showers with a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms late Thursday night (0.15 in. of rain possible, 1 in. of snow possible), rain and snow showers likely (60%) with a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday AM, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain and snow showers with a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, a (40%) chance of rain and snow showers Friday night, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain and snow showers Saturday AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon and Saturday night lows 40-33 highs near 47. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday (Veterans Day), rain likely (60%) Sunday night, rain Monday (Federal Holiday), showers likely (70%) Monday night and Tuesday, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Tuesday night, then partly cloudy Wednesday highs 49-55 lows 42-46 cooling to near 40 Tuesday night. (seasonal averages high 56 low 42)
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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend: Partly cloudy this evening, mostly cloudy with coastal showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms late tonight (0.15 in. of rain possible) while a (40%) chance of inland showers and a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms late tonight, showers and a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms Thursday (0.30 in. of rain possible) and Thursday night (0.15 in. of rain possible), showers likely (60%) with a slight (20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers Friday night, a slight (20%) chance of showers Saturday AM, just mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon, then partly cloudy Saturday night lows 42-38 highs 58-50. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday (Veterans Day), rain likely (70%) Sunday night, mostly cloudy with rain Monday (Federal Holiday), showers Monday night, showers likely (60%) Tuesday, a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday night, then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday highs 52-45 lows 41-50 cooling to near 45 Tuesday night. (seasonal averages high 57 low 44)
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Forecast for the Cascades of Lane County: Partly cloudy this evening, mostly cloudy and colder tonight, partly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain and snow showers Thursday AM, rain and snow showers Thursday afternoon (0.10 in. of rain possible, 2 in. of snow possible) , rain and snow showers in the evening, snow showers likely (60%) late Thursday night (0.10 in. of rain possible, 1-3 in. of snow possible), snow showers likely (60%) Friday, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of snow showers Friday night, a mix of clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of snow showers Saturday, then just mostly cloudy Saturday night free air freezing level 5,000 ft. falling to 4,000 ft. late tonight, snow level 3,000 ft. Thursday, at the surface Thursday night and Friday, 2,500 ft. Friday night, at the surface Saturday, then free air freezing level at the surface Saturday night lows 25-18 highs near 30. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of snow Sunday (Veterans Day), rain and snow likely (60%) Sunday night and Monday (Federal Holiday), rain and snow showers likely (60%) Monday night, a good (50%) chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday, a (40%) chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night, then mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday snow level at the surface Saturday, free air freezing level at the surface Saturday night, snow level at the surface Sunday, 3,500 ft. Sunday night, 4,500 ft. Monday, 5,000 ft. Monday night, 4,500 ft. Tuesday, 4,000 ft. Tuesday night, then 4,500 ft. Wednesday highs 37-42 lows near 27.
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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.
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Get your local Eugene-Springfield news on-line at Eugene Daily News.com
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