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No takers for this week’s question. Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. How do scientists forecast volcanic eruptions? Here is the correct answer. Scientists use a wide variety of techniques to monitor volcanoes, including seismographic detection of the earthquakes and tremor that almost always precede eruptions, precise measurements of ground deformation that often accompanies the rise of magma, changes in volcanic gas emissions, and changes in gravity and magnetic fields. Although not diagnostic individually, these techniques, when used in combination at well-monitored volcanoes, have resulted in successful predictions. At Pinatubo volcano (Philippines) in 1991, a successful forecast saved thousands of lives. For more on predicting volcanic eruptions go to The Global Vulcanism Program website. The USGS website also discusses these monitoring techniques in more detail. I’ll have a new weekly weather quiz question for you next Monday. Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.
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A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shaped area with blue arrows) moved over us sending waves of moisture our way and another low will do the same. Today the rain returns as a frontal system approaches. An even stronger frontal system will push through the Pacific Northwest early next week increasing the rain chances again.
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Advisories: A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY NEAR THE BEACHES AND HEADLANDS OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES (NOT INCLUDING THE CASCADES OF LANE COUNTY).
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a slight (20%) chance of rain this AM, rain (under 0.10 in. of rain possible) this afternoon (Veterans Day), rain tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible), mostly cloudy with AM rain likely (60%), scattered showers Monday afternoon (0.25 in. of rain possible) (Veterans Day Federal Holiday) and Monday night, a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night highs 48-53 lows 44-40. Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, a (40%) chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night, a good (50%) chance of showers Friday and Friday night, then mostly cloudy with rain likely (70%) Saturday highs 52-50 lows 37-43. (seasonal averages high 54 low 38)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg: Areas patchy fog this AM, cloudy with rain likely (60%) (under 0.10 in. of rain possible) this afternoon (Veterans Day), rain tonight (0.20 in. of rain possible) and Monday (0.20 in. of rain possible), cloudy with evening rain likely (60%), a good (50%) chance of showers late Monday night through Tuesday night highs 53-55 lows near 43. Patchy AM fog, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Wednesday, a slight (20%) chance of rain Wednesday night, patchy AM fog, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Thursday through Friday, then cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Friday night and a good (50%) chance of rain Saturday highs 57-53 lows 42-44. (seasonal averages high 55 low 41)
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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend: Cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM coastal rain with rain likely (60%) this afternoon (Veterans Day) while a (30%) chance of rain inland (0.15 in. of rain possible), rain tonight (0.35 in. of rain possible) and breezy (wind: S 15-20 mph gusts to 40 mph late night, rain (0.30 in. of rain possible) and breezy (wind: S 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph) Monday (Veterans Day Federal Holiday), cloudy with evening rain then a good (50%) chance of rain late Monday night, mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Tuesday AM, then a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night highs 53-58 lows 51-48. Patchy AM fog, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, patchy AM fog, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Friday, then mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Friday night and Saturday highs 57-53 lows 48-44 warming to 48 Thursday night. (seasonal averages high 56 low 44)
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Forecast for the Cascades of Lane County: Cloudy with a good (50%) chance of snow this afternoon (Veterans Day), rain and snow tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible, 1-4 in. of snow possible), AM rain and snow, rain and snow showers (0.50 in. of rain possible, 2 in. of snow possible) and breezy (wind: SW 15-25 mph) Monday afternoon (Veterans Day Federal Holiday), ran and snow showers likely (60%) Monday night and Tuesday, then mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night free air freezing level at the surface this AM, snow level 4,500 ft. tonight, 5,500 ft. Monday, 5,000 ft. Monday night through Tuesday night highs 35-40 lows 32-30. Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, a (40%) chance of rain Thursday, a good (50%) chance of rain and snow showers Thursday night and Friday, cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain and snow Friday night, then mostly cloudy with rain and snow likely (60%) and breezy Saturday snow level 5,000 ft. Wednesday, 6,000 ft. Wednesday night, 5,500 ft. Thursday and Thursday night, 5,000 ft. Friday, 5,500 ft. Friday night, then 5,000 ft. Saturday highs near 42 lows 27-32.
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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.
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