Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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Not much relief from the drought, but with northwesterly winds at least we cleared out some smoke.  A short-lived upper level high pressure ridge (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) will really heat us up for a couple of days. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows on previous graphic) will cool us back down rather quickly.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 34 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 37 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 63 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON, THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA.
• A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA, THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY, AND THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Sunny and warmer with patchy smoke today, clear with patchy smoke tonight,
• Sunny and warmer, hot, with patchy smoke Tuesday, patchy evening smoke, clear late Tuesday night,
• Sunny, still hot, Wednesday, then clear Wednesday night.
• highs 92-100 cooling to 96 Wednesday lows 56-59 cooling to 57 Wednesday night.
• Sunny and a bit cooler Thursday, partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday AM, mostly sunny and still cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear Friday night,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Saturday and Sunday, clear Saturday night.
• highs 82-80 warming to 86 Saturday and Sunday lows 55-52 warming to 56 Saturday night. (seasonal averages high 83 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Sunny with haze and areas of smoke today and Tuesday, clear with haze and areas of smoke each night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler with areas of smoke Wednesday, mostly clear with areas of smoke at night.
• highs 93-100 cooling to 97 Wednesday lows near 59.
• Mostly sunny, hazy and cooler Thursday and Friday, mostly clear Thursday night, clear Friday night,
• Sunny, hazy and a bit warmer Saturday, mostly sunny & hazy Sunday, mostly clear and hazy Saturday night.
• highs 87-85 warming to 90 Saturday and Sunday lows near 57. (seasonal averages high 85 low 56)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Sunny today, Tuesday and Wednesday, mostly clear tonight and Tuesday night, partly cloudy Wednesday night.
• highs near 70 lows 54-56.
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler Thursday, mostly clear Thursday night,
• Mostly sunny Friday and Saturday, mostly clear both nights,
• Then sunny Sunday.
• highs 65-68 lows near 56. (seasonal averages high 65 low 53)

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Sunny and warmer with patchy smoke today, Tuesday and sunny and a bit cooler Wednesday, clear with patchy smoke each night.
• free air freezing level 16,000 ft. today through Wednesday night,
• highs 80-85 cooling back to near 80 Wednesday lows 49-52 cooling back to 49 Wednesday night.
• Sunny and cooler Thursday and Friday, sunny and warmer Saturday and Sunday, clear each night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. Thursday and Thursday night, 14,000 ft. Friday, then 15,000 ft. Friday night through Sunday.
• highs 82-70 warming to 76 Sunday lows 45-47.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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