Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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Not much relief from the drought, but with northwesterly winds at least we cleared out some smoke.  A short-lived upper level high pressure ridge (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) will really heat us up for a couple of days. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows on previous graphic) will cool us back down rather quickly.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 40 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 61 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 39 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE, THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST, AND THE WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST.
• A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR THE COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON, THE CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA.
• A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY  FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA, THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY, AND THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Mostly clear with patchy smoke tonight,
• Mostly sunny and much warmer, actually hot, and hazy Tuesday, mostly clear Tuesday night,
• Sunny, still hot, Wednesday, clear at night,
• Partly cloudy Thursday AM, mostly sunny and cooler in the afternoon, then partly cloudy Thursday night.
• lows 58-55 highs 100-82.
• Partly cloudy Friday AM, mostly sunny and a bit cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear Friday night,
• Then sunny and a bit warmer Saturday, Sunday and Monday, clear each night.
• highs 80-87 lows 54-56. (seasonal averages high 83 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Clear with haze and areas of smoke tonight,
• Sunny and hot with haze and areas of smoke Tuesday and Wednesday, clear with areas of smoke Tuesday night, mostly clear with areas of evening haze  and mostly clear late Wednesday night.
• lows near 60 highs 102-86.
• Mostly sunny, hazy and cooler Thursday and Friday, mostly clear and hazy Thursday night, hazy and clear Friday night,
• Sunny, hazy and a bit warmer Saturday, clear and hazy at night,
• Mostly sunny and hazy Sunday and Monday, mostly clear and hazy Sunday night.
• highs 83-92 cooling to 89 Monday lows 54-58. (seasonal averages high 85 low 56)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Clear tonight with inland haze and areas of smoke,
• Sunny with inland haze and areas of smoke Tuesday, inland haze and areas of smoke in the evening, clear Tuesday night,
• Sunny and a bit cooler Wednesday, mostly clear in the evening, mostly cloudy late Wednesday night and Thursday AM with patchy AM fog, sunny and a bit cooler in the afternoon, then mostly clear at night.
• lows 54-58 highs 70-66.
• Mostly cloudy with patchy AM fog, sunny and a bit cooler Thursday afternoon, mostly clear Thursday night,
• Mostly sunny Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, mostly clear each night.
• highs near 67 lows near 56. (seasonal averages high 65 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Mostly clear tonight,
• Mostly sunny and hazy Tuesday, mostly clear and hazy at night,
• Sunny and a bit cooler Wednesday, clear and cooler Wednesday night,
• Mostly sunny and cooler Thursday, then clear at night.
• free air freezing level 16,000 ft. tonight through Thursday night,
• lows 50-53 cooling to 44 Thursday night highs 85-72.
• Sunny and a bit warmer Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, clear each night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. Friday, 14,000 ft. Friday night, 15,000 ft. Saturday through Sunday night, then 14,000 ft. Monday.
• highs 68-75 lows 44-49.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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