Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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Not much relief from the drought, but with northwesterly winds at least we cleared out some smoke.  A short-lived upper level high pressure ridge (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) really heated us up Tuesday, though not quite as hot as I expected. It will keep us hot again today. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows on previous graphic) will cool us back down rather quickly. A frontal system moves through in the middle of next week.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 80 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 62 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 60 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE, THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST, AND THE WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FROM 2 PM TODAY THROUGH 11 PM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
• A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY  FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA, THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY, AND THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Sunny, hazy and still hot today, clear tonight,
• Partly cloudy Thursday AM, mostly sunny and cooler in the afternoon, partly cloudy Thursday night,
• Mostly cloudy Friday AM, mostly sunny in the afternoon, then mostly clear Friday night.
• highs 96-82 lows 56-49.
• Mostly sunny and a bit warmer Saturday and Sunday, sunny and a bit cooler Monday, clear each night,
• Then mostly sunny and cooler Tuesday.
• highs 90-80 lows 56-52. (seasonal averages high 83 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Sunny and hot with haze and areas of smoke today, mostly clear with areas of evening haze, patchy fog with haze and smoke late tonight,
• Partly cloudy with patchy fog, haze and a slight (20%) chance of drizzle Thursday AM, sunny, hazy and cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear and hazy Thursday night,
• Partly cloudy and hazy in the AM, sunny, hazy and cooler Friday, hazy and clear Friday night.
• highs 98-83 lows 60-53.
• Sunny, hazy and a bit warmer Saturday, mostly clear and hazy at night,
• Sunny and hazy Sunday, clear and hazy Sunday night,
• Mostly sunny, hazy and a bit cooler Monday, mostly clear and hazy in the evening, then partly cloudy and hazy Sunday night and cooler Monday.
• highs 92-84 lows near 58. (seasonal averages high 84 low 55)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Mostly cloudy with patchy AM coastal fog and a slight (20%) chance of inland drizzle, partly with patchy coastal afternoon fog today while patchy AM fog inland and sunny this afternoon, patchy fog late tonight inland while mostly clear in the evening and mostly cloudy with patchy coastal fog with a slight (20%) chance of coastal drizzle late tonight,
• Mostly cloudy with patchy fog Thursday AM and a slight (20%) chance of inland AM drizzle, sunny and a bit cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear in the evening, partly cloudy at night,
• Partly cloudy in the AM, sunny and a bit warmer Friday afternoon, then mostly clear at night.
• highs 67-65 warming back to 67 Friday lows 56-58 cooling to 52 Friday night.
• Mostly sunny Saturday, clear at night,
• Mostly sunny Sunday, partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday.
• highs near 66 lows near 55. (seasonal averages high 66 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Sunny hazy, and a bit cooler today, clear and cooler tonight,
• Mostly sunny and cooler Thursday, mostly clear at night.
• Sunny and a bit cooler Friday, then clear Friday night.
• free air freezing level 16,000 ft. today and tonight, 15,000 ft. Thursday and Thursday night, then 14,000 ft. Friday, then 15,000 ft. Friday night.
• highs 83-70 lows 49-42.
• Sunny and a bit warmer Saturday, mostly clear at night,
• Mostly sunny Sunday AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon, mostly clear Sunday  night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday, partly cloudy at night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
• free air freezing level 16,000 ft. Saturday, 15,000 ft. Saturday night through Sunday night, 14,000 ft. Monday and Monday night, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Tuesday.
• highs 76-72 lows 50-47.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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