Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

________________

We’ll be alternating from high pressure (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) to low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows on previous graphic) and back again. First we’ll cool down, then we’ll warm up again. A cold front will move down from the northwest to bring cooler air our way Thursday.

________________

Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 80 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 64 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 64 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

________________

Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 11 PM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

____________

Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Clear tonight,
• Partly cloudy Thursday AM, mostly sunny and cooler in the afternoon, partly cloudy Thursday night,
• Mostly cloudy Friday AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon, then mostly clear Friday night,
• Mostly sunny and warmer Saturday, then mostly clear at night.
• lows 56-48 highs 82-80 warming to 90 Saturday.
• Mostly sunny and warmer Sunday, mostly sunny and cooler Monday, mostly clear each night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and cooler Tuesday afternoon and evening, mostly cloudy at night,
• Then a mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler Wednesday.
• highs 90-78 lows 54-50. (seasonal averages high 82 low 51)

_________________

Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Mostly clear with haze and patchy fog late tonight,
• Partly cloudy Thursday with patchy AM fog and haze, mostly sunny, hazy and cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear and cooler in the evening, partly cloudy late Thursday night and Friday AM, sunny, hazy with patchy smoke Friday afternoon, clear and hazy with patchy smoke Friday night,
• Sunny and hazy with patchy smoke and a bit warmer Saturday, clear with haze and patchy smoke at night.
• lows 60-53 highs 98-83.
• Sunny and hazy with patchy smoke and a bit cooler Sunday, partly cloudy and hazy with patchy smoke Sunday night and Monday (cooler), mostly cloudy and hazy in the evening, mostly clear and hazy with patchy smoke Monday night,
• Partly cloudy and hazy Tuesday AM, a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and a bit cooler in the afternoon and evening, mostly cloudy late Tuesday night,
• Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer Wednesday.
• highs 92-84 lows near 58. (seasonal averages high 84 low 55)

________________

Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Mostly clear this evening, mostly cloudy with patchy coastal fog and drizzle late tonight while mostly cloudy with patchy inland fog late tonight,
• Mostly cloudy with patchy fog inland Thursday AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon, mostly clear in the evening, mostly cloudy late at night,
• Partly cloudy in the AM, sunny and a bit warmer Friday afternoon, mostly clear at night,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Saturday, then clear at night.
• lows 56-58 cooling to 52 Friday night highs 67-65 warming back to 67 Friday.
• Sunny and a bit cooler Sunday, mostly clear in the evening, mostly cloudy late Sunday night  Monday, partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night,
• Then mostly cloudy Wednesday AM and partly cloudy in the afternoon.
• highs near 66 lows near 55. (seasonal averages high 66 low 53).

________________

Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Clear and cooler tonight,
• Mostly sunny and cooler Thursday and Friday, mostly clear both nights,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Saturday, then mostly clear at night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. tonight through Thursday night, 14,000 ft. Friday, then 15,000 ft. Friday night through Saturday night.
• lows 49-42 highs 72-70 warming to 76 Saturday.
• Mostly sunny Sunday AM, partly cloudy and warmer in the afternoon, mostly clear Sunday  night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, partly cloudy at night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, just partly cloudy late Tuesday night,
• Then a mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler Wednesday.
• free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Sunday and Sunday night, snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday through Tuesday night, then free air freezing level 11,000 ft. Wednesday.
• highs 76-72 lows 50-47.

_______________

**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

________________

Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

________________