Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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A ridge of high pressure (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) will warm us up again through the weekend. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows will take over next week.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 24 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 13 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 20 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Mostly cloudy this AM, mostly sunny this afternoon, mostly clear tonight,
• Mostly sunny and warmer Saturday and Sunday, mostly clear both nights,
• highs 82-92 lows 48-56 cooling to 53 Sunday night.
• Mostly sunny and cooler Monday, partly cloudy at night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and cooler Tuesday afternoon, then partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday.
• highs 85-80 lows near 52. (seasonal averages high 82 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Mostly cloudy this AM, sunny, hazy and a bit cooler with patchy smoke this afternoon, clear this evening with patchy smoke, hazy with areas of smoke late tonight,
• Sunny and hazy with patchy smoke and warmer Saturday, clear with haze and patchy smoke at night,
• Mostly sunny and hazy with patchy smoke Sunday, then mostly clear and hazy with patchy smoke Sunday night.
• highs 84-92 lows 54-59.
• Sunny and hazy with patchy smoke Monday AM, partly cloudy hazy and cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and a bit cooler in the afternoon and evening, mostly clear and hazy late Monday night,
• Sunny with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening thunderstorms, mostly cloudy late Tuesday night,
• Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday AM, then sunny in the afternoon.
• highs 88-86 lows 56-53. (seasonal averages high 84 low 55)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Partly cloudy this AM, sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, mostly clear tonight,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Saturday and Sunday, clear Saturday night, then partly cloudy Sunday night.
• highs near 67 lows 52-56.
• Partly cloudy Monday through Thursday.
• highs near 66 lows near 55. (seasonal averages high 66 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Mostly sunny and cooler today, clear tonight,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Saturday, mostly clear at night,
• Mostly sunny Sunday AM, then partly cloudy and warmer in the afternoon and at night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. today and tonight, 15,000 ft. Saturday night, then 14,000 ft. Sunday and Sunday night.
• highs 69-82 lows 42-50.
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday afternoon and  at night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, just partly cloudy late Tuesday night,
• Then a mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler Wednesday, partly cloudy at night,
• Then partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
• free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Monday and Monday night, snow level above 8,000 ft. Tuesday and Tuesday night, free air freezing level 11,000 ft. Wednesday, 12,000 ft. Wednesday night, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Thursday.
• highs 75-73 lows near 45.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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