Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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A ridge of high pressure (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) will warm us up again through the weekend. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows will take over next week.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 25 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 9 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 25 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FROM NOON UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FROM 5 AM UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Mostly clear tonight,
• Sunny, hazy and warmer Saturday, clear and hazy at night,
• Mostly sunny, hot and hazy Sunday, mostly clear Sunday night,
• Mostly sunny and cooler Monday, then mostly clear at night.
• lows 45-54 cooling to near 50 Monday night highs 92-85.
• Mostly sunny Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday night, then partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
• highs 86-83 lows 52-54. (seasonal averages high 82 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Clear this evening with patchy smoke, hazy with areas of smoke late tonight,
• Sunny and hazy with patchy smoke and warmer Saturday, clear with haze and patchy smoke at night,
• Mostly sunny and hazy with patchy smoke Sunday, mostly clear and hazy with patchy smoke in the evening, areas of smoke late Sunday night,
• Hazy with areas of smoke Monday AM, partly cloudy hazy and cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, then mostly clear and hazy late Monday night.
• lows 54-59 cooling to 56 Monday night highs 93-90.
• Partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday.
• highs 88-83 lows near 58. (seasonal averages high 84 low 55)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Clear tonight,
• Sunny Saturday, clear in the evening, partly cloudy late at night and Sunday, mostly cloudy in the evening, partly cloudy late Sunday night,
• Then partly cloudy Monday and Monday night.
• lows 52-56 highs near 66.
• Partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday night,
• Then  mostly cloudy Friday.
• highs near 66 lows near 56. (seasonal averages high 66 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Clear with haze tonight,
• Sunny, hazy and a bit warmer Saturday, clear and hazy at night,
• Mostly sunny Sunday AM, partly cloudy and warmer in the afternoon and at night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, just partly cloudy at night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. tonight, 16,000 ft. Saturday, 15,000 ft. Saturday night, 14,000 ft. Sunday and Sunday night, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday and Monday night.
• lows 42-50 cooling to 46 Monday night highs 78-82 cooling to 75 Monday.
• Mostly sunny Tuesday AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, just partly cloudy late Tuesday night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Wednesday afternoon and at night,
• Mostly sunny Thursday AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, just partly cloudy late Thursday night,
• Then partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon.
• snow level above 8,000 ft. Tuesday and Tuesday night, free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Wednesday, 13,000 ft. Wednesday night, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Thursday through Friday.
• highs 75-73 lows near 45.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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