Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Here is the correct answer. A Phenomenological Model is a computer model used to calculate air pollution concentrations. A phenomenological model focuses on an individual phenomenon, such as plume impingement or fumigation. I’ll have a new weekly weather quiz question for you starting Monday. Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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A ridge of high pressure (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) will warm us up again through the rest of the weekend. Looks like nice weather for the rest of the Festival of Eugene. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows will take over next week. One cold front will move through by the end of the week bringing the chance of showers and  with another front will be behind it.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 52 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 11 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 35 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Areas of smoke and hazy tonight,
• Mostly sunny, hot and hazy with more smoke Sunday, evening haze, clear Sunday night,
• Mostly sunny and cooler Monday, partly cloudy at night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Tuesday, then mostly clear at night.
• lows 57-54 highs 92-85.
• Mostly sunny Wednesday AM, partly cloudy and a bit warmer in the afternoon through Thursday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun Friday, becoming mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late at night,
• Then mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Saturday.
• highs 88-84 lows 55-58. (seasonal averages high 82 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Mostly clear with haze and patchy smoke tonight and Sunday AM, sunny and hazy with patchy smoke in the afternoon, mostly clear and hazy with patchy smoke in the evening, areas of smoke late Sunday night,
• Partly cloudy and hazy with areas of smoke Monday AM, partly cloudy hazy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, just partly cloudy and hazy late Monday night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday, mostly clear at night.
• lows 59-56 highs 93-90.
• Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night,
• Then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance showers Friday through Saturday.
• highs 88-83 lows near 58. (seasonal averages high 84 low 55)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Mostly clear this evening, partly cloudy and hazy late tonight and Sunday, mostly clear in the evening with inland haze, partly cloudy with inland haze late Sunday night,
• Mostly cloudy with inland morning haze, partly cloudy Monday afternoon and Monday night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday, then mostly clear at night.
• lows near 55 highs near 66.
• Partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday night,
• Then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday through Saturday.
• highs near 66 lows near 56. (seasonal averages high 66 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Mostly clear with haze and areas of smoke tonight,
• Mostly sunny Sunday and warmer with haze and smoke in the afternoon, mostly clear at night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Monday, partly cloudy at night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mostly clear with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, then mostly clear at night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. tonight and Sunday, 14,000 ft. Sunday night and Monday, snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday night through Tuesday night.
• lows 52-49 highs 80-76.
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit warmer Wednesday afternoon and at night,
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, just mostly cloudy late Thursday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Friday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers at night,
• Then mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a (40%) chance of showers Saturday.
• free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Wednesday, 13,000 ft. Wednesday night, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Thursday through Saturday.
• highs 78-72 lows near 50.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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