Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is a “Phenomenological Model?” Here is the correct answer. A Phenomenological Model is a computer model used to calculate air pollution concentrations. A phenomenological model focuses on an individual phenomenon, such as plume impingement or fumigation. I’ll have a new weekly weather quiz question for you starting Monday. Please remember to post your answer as a comment by clicking on “no comments /comments” in the upper right hand portion of this page under the caption, then add your comment. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. The answer has to be a comment to win. An email answer will not count. Good luck.

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A ridge of high pressure (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) warmed us up again, but the smokey haze filtered the sun so it didn’t get quite as warm as expected. A trough of low pressure (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows) will start to take over. A cold front will move through by the end of the week bringing the chance of showers with it.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 185 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 163 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 179 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA).

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Advisories:

• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR CROOK, DESCHUTES, GILLIAM,GRANT, JEFFERSON, MORROW, SHERMAN, UMATILLA, WASCO, WHEELER, BENTON, AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HOT, DRY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE AND STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, AND THE CENTRAL BLUE MOUNTAINS.
• A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM 3PM UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SUNSET BAY STATE PARK BEACH LOCATED IN COOS COUNTY FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE AND AGENCY LAKE DOWN TO KENO DAM, LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KLAMATH FALLS ALONG HIGHWAY 97 IN KLAMATH COUNTY. THE SECTION FROM THE KENO DAM TO THE CALIFORNIA BORDER HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR USE. WATER MONITORING BY THE USGS HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF BLUE-GREEN ALGAE TOXINS WHICH CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. SWALLOWING, INHALING OR SKIN CONTACT WITH WATER DROPLETS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.
• A HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL FECAL BACTERIA WHICH CAN RESULT IN DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER – ESPECIALLY BY CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORNE BACTERIA  – SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. VISITORS  SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Hazy this evening, clear late tonight,
• Mostly sunny and cooler Monday, mostly clear at night,
• A mix of clouds and sun Tuesday AM, mostly sunny and a bit cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear at night,
• Mostly sunny Wednesday AM, partly cloudy and a bit warmer in the afternoon and evening, then mostly cloudy Wednesday night.
• lows near 55 highs near 85.
• A mix of clouds and sun Thursday, partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy Thursday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers at night,
• Then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Saturday AM, a bit cooler with a (40%) chance of afternoon showers, then cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.
• highs 84-77 warming to 80 Sunday lows near 58. (seasonal averages high 82 low 51)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including Roseburg:

• Mostly clear and hazy with patchy smoke this evening, haze and areas of smoke late tonight,
• Partly cloudy and hazy with areas of smoke Monday AM, partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, just clear late Monday night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon, mostly clear at night,
• Sunny in the AM, partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and at night with a slight (20%) chance of showers late at night.
• lows near 58 highs 93-90.
• Partly cloudy Thursday AM, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, just mostly cloudy late Thursday night,
• Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance showers Friday, a (30%) chance of showers at night and a bit cooler Saturday, then just a slight (20%) chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.
• highs 88-83 lows near 58. (seasonal averages high 84 low 55)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Inland haze, otherwise partly cloudy this evening and mostly cloudy late tonight,
• Mostly cloudy with inland morning haze, partly cloudy Monday afternoon and Monday night,
• Partly cloudy Tuesday, mostly clear at night,
  Partly cloudy Wednesday, mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday night.
• lows near 55 highs near 66.
• Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a slight (20%) chance of showers Thursday and in the evening, just mostly cloudy at night,
• Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon, a (40%) chance of showers at night and Saturday, then a slight (20%) chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.
• highs near 66 lows near 56. (seasonal averages high 66 low 53).

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Hazy this evening, mostly clear late tonight,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Monday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, just partly cloudy at night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mostly clear with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, just mostly clear late at night,
• Mostly sunny in the AM, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, then just partly cloudy at night.
• free air freezing level 14,000 ft. tonight and Monday, snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday night through Wednesday night.
• lows near 50 highs near 76.
• A mix of clouds and sun Thursday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Friday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of showers Friday night and Saturday, cloudy and a bit cooler with a good (50%) chance of showers Saturday night,
• Cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers Sunday AM, then a mix of clouds and sun with a (40%) chance of showers Sunday afternoon.
• free air freezing level 12,000 ft. Thursday, snow level above 8,000 ft. Thursday night through Sunday.
• highs 78-72 lows near 50.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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