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It’s time for my weekly weather quiz. Here is this week’s question. Major flooding occurred along the Northeast Coast of the U.S. in the summer of 1972 causing a 500-year flood in Elmira, New Your and other locations. What was the main cause of this flooding? You’ll get extra praise if you can explain a secondary cause for all of the rain that fell. Please place your answer as a comment after the forecasts on this page. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. Good luck.

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A  high pressure ridge (shaded “Arch” shape over the Pacific and the Northwest Coast) is moving in behind the upper level low pressure trough (shaded “U” area moving away from us. That adds up to more sunshine and a bit warmer for a short while. There are some clouds spinning around an upper level low over California. For the most part those clouds and associated showers will stay in Eastern Oregon, but some could manage to survive the trip over the Cascades to Western Oregon. A weak cold front will bring back a chance of showers Friday. Look for another stronger cold front to roll across Oregon on Sunday bringing the chance of precipitation back into Columbus Day.

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Advisories:  NONE AT THIS TIME.

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Here are your detailed forecasts. **

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis: Patchy fog this AM, mostly sunny this afternoon, partly cloudy tonight, a mix of clouds and sun and cooler  Thursday, and partly cloudy Thursday night highs 74-68 lows near 47. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Friday AM, a (30%) chance in  the afternoon, rain likely (60%) chance Friday night, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Saturday and  Saturday night highs near 72 lows 50-45. Mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Sunday, partly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers Sunday night, a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday (Columbus Day), partly cloudy Monday night, and a mix of clouds and sun Tuesday highs 68-64 lows 47-49. (seasonal averages highs 69 low 42)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including, Roseburg:  Sunny this AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon and tonight, partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday evening, mostly cloudy at night highs 75-72 lows 48-50. Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Friday, a (40%) chance of rain Friday night and Saturday, mostly cloudy Saturday night,  mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday, a slight (20%) chance of showers Sunday night and Monday (Columbus Day), and just mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday highs 70-75 cooling to 66 Monday and back to 69 Tuesday lows in the low 50s cooling to 43 Monday night. (seasonal averages high 74 low 46)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend: Sunny this AM, partly cloudy in the afternoon and evening, mostly cloudy tonight, partly cloudy with patchy coastal fog Thursday AM, mostly cloudy in the afternoon and night with a slight (20%) chance of coastal showers late Thursday night highs 66-60 lows 52-50. Mostly cloudy Friday with a good (50%) chance of afternoon rain, mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Friday night  and Saturday, mostly cloudy Saturday night, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Sunday night and Monday (Columbus Day), and just mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday highs 65-62 lows 56-45. (seasonal averages high 65 lows 47).

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Forecast for the Cascades of Lane County:  Mostly sunny today,  partly cloudy tonight, partly cloudy and cooler Thursday with a slight (20%) chance of afternoon and evening showers free air freezing level 13,000 ft. today, and 12,000 ft. tonight, snow level 8,000 ft. Thursday and Thursday night highs 65-50 lows near 40. AM clouds and sun, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Friday, partly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of  rain Friday night and Saturday, partly cloudy at night, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain Sunday, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers Sunday night, a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday (Columbus Day), partly cloudy at night and a mix of clouds and sun Tuesday snow level  above 8,000 ft. Friday, 12,000 ft. through Monday, free air freezing level 9,000 ft. Monday night and 10,000 ft. Tuesday highs 60-53 low 43-39.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.