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It’s time for my weekly weather quiz. Here is this week’s question. Major flooding occurred along the Northeast Coast of the U.S. in the summer of 1972 causing a 500-year flood in Elmira, New Your and other locations. What was the main cause of this flooding? You’ll get extra praise if you can explain a secondary cause for all of the rain that fell. Please place your answer as a comment after the forecasts on this page. The first person to post the correct answer will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. Good luck.
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A high pressure ridge (shaded “Arch” shape over the Pacific and the Northwest Coast) is moving in behind the upper level low pressure trough (shaded “U” area moving away from us. That adds up to more sunshine and a bit warmer for a short while. There are some clouds spinning around an upper level low over California. For the most part those clouds and associated showers will stay in Eastern Oregon, but some could manage to survive the trip over the Cascades to Western Oregon. A weak cold front will bring back a chance of showers Friday. Look for another stronger cold front to roll across Oregon on Sunday bringing the chance of precipitation back into Columbus Day.
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Advisories: NONE AT THIS TIME.
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Here are your detailed forecasts. **
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis: A mix of clouds and sun and cooler today, and partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy tonight, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Friday AM, a (30%) chance in the afternoon, and rain likely (60%) chance Friday night highs 65-73 lows 46-50. Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Saturday and Saturday night, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Sunday, partly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers Sunday night, a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday (Columbus Day), partly cloudy Monday night, and a mix of clouds and sun Tuesday highs 70-60 lows 53-42. (seasonal averages highs 69 low 42)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including, Roseburg: Partly cloudy today through Thursday evening, mostly cloudy at night, a slight (20%) chance of rain Friday, a good (50%) chance of rain Friday night, mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Saturday, and a slight (20%) chance of rain Saturday night highs 70-72 lows 50-56. Mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Sunday, a slight (20%) chance of showers Sunday night, partly cloudy Monday (Columbus Day), just mostly cloudy Monday night, partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night, then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Wednesday highs 65-68 lows 50-44 Monday night. (seasonal averages high 73 low 45)
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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend: Patchy AM coastal fog, mostly cloudy this afternoon and tonight with a slight (20%) chance of coastal showers late tonight, mostly cloudy Friday with a slight (20%) chance of afternoon rain, mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Friday night and Saturday, mostly cloudy Saturday night highs 62-65 lows 52-58. Mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Sunday, a slight (20%) chance of showers Sunday night, partly cloudy Monday (Columbus Day), and just mostly cloudy Monday night, partly cloudy Tuesday, mostly cloudy at night, and a slight (20%) chance of rain Wednesday highs 60-63 lows 48-43-46. (seasonal averages high 65 lows 47).
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Forecast for the Cascades of Lane County: Partly cloudy and cooler today with a slight (20%) chance of afternoon and evening showers,partly cloudy late tonight, a mix of clouds and sun Friday AM, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of afternoon rain, mostly cloudy in the evening, then partly cloudy at night with a (40%) chance of showers snow level 8,000 ft. today through Friday night highs 50-60 lows 42-37. Mostly cloudy with rain likely (60%) Saturday, a (30%) chance of rain Saturday night, rain Sunday, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers Sunday night, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday (Columbus Day), partly cloudy at night, a mix of clouds and sun Tuesday, partly cloudy Tuesday night with a slight (20%) of showers, then a (%) chance of showers Wednesday snow level above 8,000 ft. Saturday through Sunday, 5,500 ft. Sunday night, 7,000 ft. Monday, free air freezing level 9,000 ft. Monday night and 10,000 ft. Tuesday highs 60-53 warming 62 Tuesday, cooling to 54 Wednesday low 42-30-36-33.
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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.