Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is “The Best Track?” And I don’t mean race track. The first person to post the correct answer as a comment on this page will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs.  Good luck.

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An Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) called an Omega Block (shaped like Greek letter Omega) brought the hot, dry weather allowing wildfire smoke to cover the area. The graphics for days 1-3 show a cold front approaching the coast Thursday. The graphics for days 3-7 show frontal systems attempting to move into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and next Tuesday.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 152 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 157 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 154 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)

 

 

 

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM 3 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRL OREGON CASCADES, THE DDSCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, THE WESTERN ROGUE RIVER, AND THE SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM 3 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY FOR THE EST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT.
• A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN, THE UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, THE WESTERN ROGUE RIVER, THE SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST, THE WESTERN ROUGHE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS, THE EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST, AND  THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES.
• A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST, THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE, THE ENTIRE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST,  THE WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE SOUTHERN BLUE AND STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, AND THE CENTRAL BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
• A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR THE WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, THE WESTERN ROGUE RIVER, AND THE SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST.
• A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES.
• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM FRIDAY FOR BENTON COUNTY, CLACKAMAS COUNTY, CLATSOP COUNTY, COLUMBIA COUNTY, HOOD RIVER COUNTY, LANE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY, LINN COUNTY, MARION COUNTY,MULTNOMAH COUNTY, POLK COUNTY, TILLAMOOK COUNTY, WASHINGTON COUNTY, WASHINGTON COUNTY, CROOK COUNTY, DESCHUTES COUNTY, GILLIAM COUNTY, GRANT COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, JEFFERSON COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, SHERMAN COUNTY, UMATILLA COUNTY, UNION COUNTY, WILLOWA COUNTY, WASCO COUNTY, WHEELER COUNTY, THE KLAMATH BASIN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND WESTERN, CENTRL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY, BAKER COUNTY, HARNEY COUNTY, AND MALHEUR COUNTY .
• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, JACKSON COUNTY,NTHE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS.
• A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR BURN SCAR AREAS FOR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, JACKSON COUNTY, THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS.
• The Oregon Health Authority issued a Health Advisory for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.

• The Oregon Health Authority has updated the Health Advisory issued July 28 for Howard Bay (also known locally as Howards Bay or Howard’s Bay), located in the southwest corner of Upper Klamath Lake including Shoalwater Bay to the north and now all of Upper Klamath Lake. These areas of Upper Klamath Lake are located off Oregon Route 140, 15 miles west of Klamath Falls in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in Howard Bay. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Howard Bay and Shoalwater Bay at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Agency Lake, located just north of Klamath Falls along U.S. Highway 97 in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the lake. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Agency Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Coffenbury Lake, located at Fort Stevens State Park about five miles northwest of US-101 ALT, Northwest Ridgefield Road near Warrenton in Clatsop County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae that can produce toxins in Coffenbury Lake. These blue-green algae levels are likely to be associated with dangerous cyanotoxin concentrations in the water that can be harmful to humans and animals.  People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur are discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins that can be produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people with skin sensitivities who come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Coffenbury Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• The Oregon Health Authority updated the Health Advisory issued June 30 for Lake Billy Chinook, located about 12 miles west of Madras in Jefferson County. The update lifts the advisory on those areas of the Deschutes and Crooked River of Lake Billy Chinook arms affected by the advisory, and confines the advisory on the Metolius Arm to Perry South Cove. Water monitoring has confirmed that the level of blue-green algae toxins are below guideline values for human exposure. However, OHA recommends that people remain cautious when using the lake, particularly with pets because toxins are still well above the very low exposure levels established for dogs.
• A Permanent Health Advisory remains in effect for the South Umpqua River and Lawson Bar. Pools in the bedrock along the rivers edge are known to develop Blue-green Algae (cyanobacterial) blooms that can be harmful to pets and people if accidental ingestion occurs. Signs have been posted along several access areas along the river.

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Your College Football Forecast:

September 9th-

Ducks vs Nebraska, at Autzen Stadium – Kickoff: 1:30 PM PDT – A mix of clouds and sun 70 warming to 77 by the end of the game.

Beavers vs Minnesota, at Reser Stadium – Kickoff: 7:00 PM PDT- Partly cloudy 75 and cooling as the game progresses.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• A mix of clouds and sun with areas of smoke and a (30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight (0.10 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a good (50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), a (40%) chance of showers at night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of AM showers, a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon and evening, just mostly cloudy late Friday night.
• highs 82-77 lows 60-54.
• A mix of clouds and sun Saturday, partly cloudy at night and Sunday (a bit warmer), mostly clear Sunday night,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Monday, clear at night,
• Then mostly sunny and a bit cooler Tuesday.
• highs 77-88 cooling to 85 Tuesday lows 52-56. (seasonal averages high 80 low 49)

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Forecast for Roseburg:

• Mostly cloudy with patchy smoke and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms today (under 0.10 in. of rain possible) and tonight (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday AM, patchy smoke and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), a (30%) chance of scattered evening thunderstorms, isolated showers late Thursday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, patchy smoke and a bit cooler Friday afternoon and evening with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, then mostly cloudy with patchy smoke late at night.
• highs 88-79 lows 62-59.
• Mostly cloudy with patchy smoke Saturday AM, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with patchy smoke in the afternoon, mostly clear with patchy smoke Saturday night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit warmer with patchy smoke Sunday, mostly clear with patchy smoke at night,
• Sunny and a bit warmer with patchy smoke Monday, mostly clear with patchy smoke Monday night,
• Then mostly sunny with patchy smoke and a bit cooler Tuesday.
• highs 83-90 cooling to 88 Tuesday lows 55-57. (seasonal averages high 82 low 53)

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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and patchy inland smoke this afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible) and evening, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of  thunderstorms late tonight (0.10 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
• Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers while a slight (20%) chance of AM inland thunderstorms,  scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms and a bit cooler Thursday afternoon, cloudy with a (40%) chance of scattered evening thunderstorms, scattered coastal showers late at night while isolated inland showers late Thursday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible).
• Mostly cloudy with areas of AM smoke,  a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon and evening, then just mostly cloudy late Friday night.
• highs 69-66 lows near 56.
• Mostly cloudy in the AM, partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and evening, mostly clear Saturday night,
• Mostly sunny Sunday and Monday (a bit warmer), mostly clear both nights,
• AM sun, then partly cloudy and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon.
• highs 66-69 cooling to 65 Tuesday lows 56-54. (seasonal averages high 66 low 52)

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Partly cloudy and a  bit cooler with smoke and a (30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible, more in storms), areas of smoke and a good (50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a (40%) chance of AM showers and thunderstorms, a bit cooler with areas of smoke and showers likely (70%) and a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, areas of smoke and mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of showers Thursday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun with areas of smoke and a (40%) chance of showers Friday, partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers in the evening, then just mostly cloudy late Friday night.
• snow level above 8,000 ft. today through Friday afternoon, then free air freezing level 13,000 ft. Friday night.
• highs 76-65 lows 54-48.
• A mix of clouds and sun with areas of smoke Saturday afternoon, partly cloudy with areas of smoke Saturday night through Sunday evening, clear with areas of smoke late at night,
• Sunny with areas of smoke Monday, clear with areas of smoke Monday night,
• Then mostly sunny with areas of smoke Tuesday.
• free air freezing level 13,000 ft. Saturday, 13,000 ft. rising to 15,000 ft. Saturday night, 15,000 ft. rising to 16,000 ft. Sunday, 16,000 ft. Sunday night through Monday night, then 16,000 ft. falling to 15,000 ft. Tuesday.
• highs 64-78 lows 46-53.

 

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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