Here is my new weekly weather quiz question. What is “The Best Track?” And I don’t mean race track. The first person to post the correct answer as a comment on this page will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs.  Good luck.

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An Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) called an Omega Block (shaped like Greek letter Omega) brought the hot, dry weather allowing wildfire smoke to cover the area. The graphics for days 1-3 show a cold front moving through Oregon Friday. The graphics for days 3-7 show frontal systems attempting to move into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and next Thursday.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 159 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 165 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 159 in the Unhealthy category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)

 

 

 

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Advisories:

• *A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST, THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE, THE EASRT SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE, THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST, THE WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST .
• *A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING  ON DRY FUELS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN, THE UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST, THE WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS, THE EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE KLAMATH BASIN, THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTH CENTRA OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY.
• *A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM 3 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT.
• *A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROPM 2 PM THURSDAY UNTIL 11 PM FRIDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE SOUTHERN BLUE AND STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, AND THE CENTRAL BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY FOR THE WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, THE WESTERN ROGUE RIVER, AND THE SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM 3 PM TODAY UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT.
• A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN, THE UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, THE WESTERN ROGUE RIVER, THE SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST, THE WESTERN ROUGHE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS, THE EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST, AND  THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES.
• *A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES.
• *AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM FRIDAY FOR BENTON COUNTY, CLACKAMAS COUNTY, CLATSOP COUNTY, COLUMBIA COUNTY, HOOD RIVER COUNTY, LANE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY, LINN COUNTY, MARION COUNTY,MULTNOMAH COUNTY, POLK COUNTY, TILLAMOOK COUNTY, WASHINGTON COUNTY, WASHINGTON COUNTY, CROOK COUNTY, DESCHUTES COUNTY, GILLIAM COUNTY, GRANT COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, JEFFERSON COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, SHERMAN COUNTY, UMATILLA COUNTY, UNION COUNTY, WILLOWA COUNTY, WASCO COUNTY, WHEELER COUNTY, THE KLAMATH BASIN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND WESTERN, CENTRL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY, BAKER COUNTY, HARNEY COUNTY, AND MALHEUR COUNTY .
• *AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, JACKSON COUNTY,NTHE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS.
• *A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR BURN SCAR AREAS FOR THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, JACKSON COUNTY, THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS.
• The Oregon Health Authority issued a Health Advisory for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• The Oregon Health Authority has updated the Health Advisory issued July 28 for Howard Bay (also known locally as Howards Bay or Howard’s Bay), located in the southwest corner of Upper Klamath Lake including Shoalwater Bay to the north and now all of Upper Klamath Lake. These areas of Upper Klamath Lake are located off Oregon Route 140, 15 miles west of Klamath Falls in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in Howard Bay. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Howard Bay and Shoalwater Bay at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Agency Lake, located just north of Klamath Falls along U.S. Highway 97 in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the lake. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Agency Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Coffenbury Lake, located at Fort Stevens State Park about five miles northwest of US-101 ALT, Northwest Ridgefield Road near Warrenton in Clatsop County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae that can produce toxins in Coffenbury Lake. These blue-green algae levels are likely to be associated with dangerous cyanotoxin concentrations in the water that can be harmful to humans and animals.  People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur are discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins that can be produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people with skin sensitivities who come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Coffenbury Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• The Oregon Health Authority updated the Health Advisory issued June 30 for Lake Billy Chinook, located about 12 miles west of Madras in Jefferson County. The update lifts the advisory on those areas of the Deschutes and Crooked River of Lake Billy Chinook arms affected by the advisory, and confines the advisory on the Metolius Arm to Perry South Cove. Water monitoring has confirmed that the level of blue-green algae toxins are below guideline values for human exposure. However, OHA recommends that people remain cautious when using the lake, particularly with pets because toxins are still well above the very low exposure levels established for dogs.
• A Permanent Health Advisory remains in effect for the South Umpqua River and Lawson Bar. Pools in the bedrock along the rivers edge are known to develop Blue-green Algae (cyanobacterial) blooms that can be harmful to pets and people if accidental ingestion occurs. Signs have been posted along several access areas along the river.

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Your College Football Forecast:

September 9th-

Ducks vs Nebraska, at Autzen Stadium – Kickoff: 1:30 PM PDT – A mix of clouds and sun 72 warming to 77 by the end of the game.

Beavers vs Minnesota, at Reser Stadium – Kickoff: 7:00 PM PDT- Partly cloudy 75 with a slight chance of evening showers and cooling as the game progresses.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening, showers and thunderstorms likely (70%) late tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
• Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a (40%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday (under 0.10 in. of rain possible, more in storms), a good (50%) chance of showers at night (0.10 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, just mostly cloudy late Friday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun Saturday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, then partly cloudy late at night.
• lows 60-54 highs near 80.
• Partly cloudy Sunday AM, mostly sunny and a bit warmer in the afternoon, mostly clear Sunday night,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Monday, clear at night,
• Mostly sunny Tuesday, then partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday(a bit cooler).
• highs 82-86 cooling back to 82 Wednesday lows 52-55. (seasonal averages high 79 low 49)

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Forecast for Roseburg:

• Mostly cloudy with patchy smoke and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms this evening, patchy smoke with a (30%) chance of thunderstorms late  tonight (under 0.10 in. of rain possible, small hail and gusty winds in storms),
• Mostly cloudy with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday AM, patchy smoke and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible, gusty winds and heavy rain possible), a (30%) chance of scattered evening thunderstorms, a (30%) chance of showers late Thursday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke AM smoke,  a slight (20%) chance of showers with patchy smoke and a bit cooler Friday afternoon, a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, partly cloudy with patchy smoke late at night,
• Partly cloudy and a bit warmer with patchy smoke Saturday and Saturday night.
• lows 62-57 highs 82-80 warming to 84 Saturday.
• Mostly sunny and a bit warmer with patchy smoke Sunday, mostly clear with patchy smoke at night,
• Mostly sunny with patchy smoke and a bit warmer Monday and Tuesday, mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday evening, partly cloudy with patchy smoke Tuesday night,
• Then partly cloudy and a bit cooler with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
• highs 86-90 cooling back to 86 Wednesday lows 55-57. (seasonal averages high 81 low 53)

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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of coastal thunderstorms this evening while patchy inland smoke this evening (gusty winds and small hail possible), mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of  thunderstorms late tonight (0.10 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
• Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Thursday AM,  a (30%) chance of coastal showers in the afternoon while a (%) chance of afternoon thunderstorms and a bit cooler inland in the afternoon, cloudy with a (30%) chance of coastal showers at night while a (%) chance of inland evening thunderstorms, then a (%) chance of inland showers late Thursday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible).
• Mostly cloudy with areas of AM smoke,  a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday afternoon, just mostly cloudy in the evening, partly cloudy late Friday night,
• Partly cloudy and a bit warmer Saturday, mostly cloudy in the evening, then partly cloudy late Saturday night.
• lows 58-55 highs 66-68.
• Mostly sunny Sunday and Monday (a bit warmer), mostly clear both nights,
• Sunny and a bit cooler Tuesday, mostly clear in the evening, partly cloudy at night,
• Then partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday afternoon.
• highs 70-65 lows near 54. (seasonal averages high 66 low 51)

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a good (50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening, areas of smoke with showers likely (70%) with a chance of thunderstorms late tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a good (50%) chance of AM showers and thunderstorms, a bit cooler with areas of smoke and a good (50%) and a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms), areas of smoke and mostly cloudy with evening showers likely (70%), areas of smoke with a good (50%) chance of showers late Thursday night,
• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of showers Friday, partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a (40%) chance of showers in the evening, just mostly cloudy with patchy smoke  late Friday night,
• Partly cloudy with patchy smoke Saturday and Saturday night.
• snow level above 8,000 ft. tonight through Friday night, free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Saturday, then 13,000 ft. rising to 14,000 ft. Saturday night.
• lows 56-47 highs 69-67.
• Partly cloudy with patchy smoke Sunday AM, mostly sunny and a bit warmer with areas of smoke in the afternoon,  mostly clear with areas of smoke late at night,
• Sunny and a bit warmer with areas of smoke Monday, clear with areas of smoke in the evening, partly cloudy with areas of smoke Monday night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler with areas of smoke Tuesday, partly cloudy with areas of smoke, and a slight (20%) chance of showers Tuesday night.,
• Partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, areas of smoke with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms and a bit cooler Wednesday afternoon.
• free air freezing level 14,000 ft. rising to 15,000 ft. Sunday, 15,000 ft. Sunday night, 15,000 ft. rising to 16,000 ft. Monday, then 16,000 ft. Monday night through Wednesday,
• highs 72-80 cooling to 73 Wednesday lows 49-53.

 

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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