Here is my weekly weather quiz question. What is “The Best Track?” And I don’t mean race track. The first person to post the correct answer as a comment on this page will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs.  Good luck.

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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows) is changing our weather pattern increasing the rain chances with slight chances of thunderstorms.  The graphics for days 1-3 show the cold front moving through Oregon. The graphics for days 3-7 show frontal systems attempting to move into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and again next Wednesday.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 88 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 139 in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 88 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)

 

 

 

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Advisories:

• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FOR THE NORTH OREGON COAST, THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE, THE EASRT SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE, THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY, THE NORTH OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS, THE MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST WEST OF CASCADE CREST, THE WILLAMETTE NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST .
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING  ON DRY FUELS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE UMPQUA BASIN, THE UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST, THE WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS, THE EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE KLAMATH BASIN, THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTH CENTRA OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FRIDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, THE SOUTHERN BLUE AND STRAWBERRY MOUNTAINS, THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, AND THE CENTRAL BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST, THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST, THE WESTERN ROGUE RIVER, AND THE SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST.
• A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE DESCHUTES NATIONAL FOREST, AND THE MINUS SISTERS RANGER DISTRICT.
• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM FRIDAY FOR BENTON COUNTY, CLACKAMAS COUNTY, CLATSOP COUNTY, COLUMBIA COUNTY, HOOD RIVER COUNTY, LANE COUNTY, LINCOLN COUNTY, LINN COUNTY, MARION COUNTY,MULTNOMAH COUNTY, POLK COUNTY, TILLAMOOK COUNTY, WASHINGTON COUNTY, WASHINGTON COUNTY, CROOK COUNTY, DESCHUTES COUNTY, GILLIAM COUNTY, GRANT COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, JEFFERSON COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, SHERMAN COUNTY, UMATILLA COUNTY, UNION COUNTY, WILLOWA COUNTY, WASCO COUNTY, WHEELER COUNTY, THE KLAMATH BASIN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND WESTERN, CENTRL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY, BAKER COUNTY, HARNEY COUNTY, AND MALHEUR COUNTY .
• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, JACKSON COUNTY, THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS.
• The Oregon Health Authority issued a Health Advisory for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• The Oregon Health Authority has updated the Health Advisory issued July 28 for Howard Bay (also known locally as Howards Bay or Howard’s Bay), located in the southwest corner of Upper Klamath Lake including Shoalwater Bay to the north and now all of Upper Klamath Lake. These areas of Upper Klamath Lake are located off Oregon Route 140, 15 miles west of Klamath Falls in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in Howard Bay. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Howard Bay and Shoalwater Bay at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Agency Lake, located just north of Klamath Falls along U.S. Highway 97 in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the lake. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Agency Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Coffenbury Lake, located at Fort Stevens State Park about five miles northwest of US-101 ALT, Northwest Ridgefield Road near Warrenton in Clatsop County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae that can produce toxins in Coffenbury Lake. These blue-green algae levels are likely to be associated with dangerous cyanotoxin concentrations in the water that can be harmful to humans and animals.  People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur are discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins that can be produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people with skin sensitivities who come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Coffenbury Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• The Oregon Health Authority updated the Health Advisory issued June 30 for Lake Billy Chinook, located about 12 miles west of Madras in Jefferson County. The update lifts the advisory on those areas of the Deschutes and Crooked River of Lake Billy Chinook arms affected by the advisory, and confines the advisory on the Metolius Arm to Perry South Cove. Water monitoring has confirmed that the level of blue-green algae toxins are below guideline values for human exposure. However, OHA recommends that people remain cautious when using the lake, particularly with pets because toxins are still well above the very low exposure levels established for dogs.
• A Permanent Health Advisory remains in effect for the South Umpqua River and Lawson Bar. Pools in the bedrock along the rivers edge are known to develop Blue-green Algae (cyanobacterial) blooms that can be harmful to pets and people if accidental ingestion occurs. Signs have been posted along several access areas along the river.

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Your College Football Forecast:

Saturday:

Ducks vs Nebraska, at Autzen Stadium – Kickoff: 1:30 PM PDT – A mix of clouds and sun with a slight chance of showers  72 warming to 77 by the end of the game.

Beavers vs Minnesota, at Reser Stadium – Kickoff: 7:00 PM PDT- Partly cloudy, becoming mostly cloudy 75 and cooling as the game progresses.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a good (50%) chance of showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms this evening, a good (50%) chance of showers late tonight with areas of smoke (0.10 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
• Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday, mostly cloudy Friday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of showers and a bit warmer Saturday afternoon, mostly cloudy at night,
• Partly cloudy Sunday AM, mostly sunny and a bit warmer in the afternoon, then mostly clear Sunday night.
• lows 60-52 highs 76-80.
• Mostly sunny and a bit warmer Monday and Tuesday, mostly clear Monday night, partly cloudy Tuesday night,
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, a slight (20%) chance of showers late at night,
• Then partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Thursday.
• highs 85-78 lows 54-50. (seasonal averages high 79 low 49)

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Forecast for Roseburg:

• Cloudy with areas of smoke and showers likely (70%) with a slight (20%) chance of evening thunderstorms, a good (50%) chance of showers late tonight (0.15 in. of rain possible),
• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday AM, mostly cloudy with patchy smoke and a bit cooler Friday afternoon and at night,
• Mostly cloudy with patchy AM smoke, partly cloudy and a bit warmer with patchy smoke Saturday afternoon and Saturday night,
• Partly cloudy with patchy AM smoke, sunny and a bit warmer with patchy smoke Sunday afternoon, then clear with patchy smoke at night.
• lows 62-56 highs 79-85.
• Mostly sunny with patchy smoke and a bit warmer Monday, mostly clear Monday night,
• Sunny with patchy smoke and a bit cooler Tuesday, mostly clear with patchy evening smoke, partly cloudy with patchy smoke late Tuesday night,
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Wednesday, patchy smoke with a slight (20%) chance of showers at night,
• Then partly cloudy and a bit warmer with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers Thursday.
• highs 89-80 lows 58-54. (seasonal averages high 81 low 53)

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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms this evening,  a (30%) chance of showers late tonight (under 0.10 in. of rain possible, small hail possible).
• Mostly cloudy with areas of AM smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers, just mostly cloudy with areas of smoke Friday afternoon, mostly cloudy Friday night through Saturday evening, partly cloudy late at night,
• Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer Saturday and in the evening, mostly cloudy in the evening, partly cloudy late Saturday night and Sunday AM, sunny and a bit warmer in the afternoon, then clear Sunday night.
• lows 58-53 highs 65-68.
• Mostly sunny and a bit warmer Monday, mostly clear at night,
• Sunny and a bit cooler Tuesday, mostly clear in the evening, partly cloudy late Tuesday night,
• Then partly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday (a bit warmer).
• highs 73-63 warming to 65 Thursday lows near 54. (seasonal averages high 66 low 51)

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Mostly cloudy with areas of smoke and showers with a chance of thunderstorms this evening, areas of smoke with a good (50%) chance of showers late tonight (0.25 in of rain possible, more in storms),
• A mix of clouds and sun with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, a bit cooler with a (40%) chance of showers Friday afternoon, partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, just partly cloudy with patchy smoke late Friday night,
• A mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with patchy with smoke Saturday, partly cloudy with patchy evening smoke,  mostly cloudy with patchy smoke late Saturday night,
• Partly cloudy with patchy smoke Sunday AM, mostly sunny and a bit warmer with areas of smoke in the afternoon, then mostly clear with areas of smoke Sunday night.
• snow level above 8,000 ft. tonight and Friday, free air freezing level 13,000 ft. late Friday night and Saturday, 13,000 ft. rising to 14,000 ft. Saturday night, 14,000 ft. rising to 15,000 ft. Sunday, then 15,000 ft. Sunday night.
• lows 52-46 highs 65-69.
• Mostly sunny and a bit warmer with areas of smoke Monday, mostly clear with areas of smoke at night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler with areas of smoke Tuesday, partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night,
• Partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of AM showers and thunderstorms, a (40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms and a bit cooler Wednesday afternoon and evening, then partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers late at night and Thursday (a bit cooler).
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. Monday through Tuesday evening, snow level above 8,000 ft. Wednesday through Thursday.
• highs 78-64 lows 52-46.

 

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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