Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “The Best Track?” And I don’t mean race track. Here is the correct answer. Best Track is a subjectively-smoothed representation of a tropical cyclone’s location and intensity over its lifetime. The best track contains the cyclone’s latitude, longitude, maximum sustained surface winds, and minimum sea-level pressure at 6-hourly intervals. Best track positions and intensities, which are based on a post-storm assessment of all available data, may differ from values contained in storm advisories. They also generally will not reflect the erratic motion implied by connecting individual center fix positions.  I’ll have a new weekly weather quiz question for you Monday. The first person to post the correct answer as a comment on this page will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs.  Good luck.

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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (Shaded “U” shape with blue arrows) changed our weather pattern returning the rain chances. A High Pressure Ridge (Shaded “Arch” shape with blue arrows) takes over today. The graphics for days 1-3 show the cold front that’s moving through Oregon. The graphics for days 3-7 show a frontal that will push through the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and another one that approaches the coast next Sunday.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene-Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 28 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 47 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 31 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)

 

 

 

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Advisories:

• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST, THE CURRY COUNTY COAST, CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, THE EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS, JACKSON COUNTY, THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, AND THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS.
• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR CROOK COUNTY, DESCHUTES COUNTY, GILLIAM COUNTY, GRANT COUNTY, JEFFERSON COUNTY, MORROW COUNTY, SHERMAN COUNTY, UMATILLA COUNTY, UNION COUNTY, WALLOWA COUNTY, WASCO COUNTY, WHEELER COUNTY, AND HOOD RIVER COUNTY..
• AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN, THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.
• The Oregon Health Authority issued a Health Advisory for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• The Oregon Health Authority has updated the Health Advisory issued July 28 for Howard Bay (also known locally as Howards Bay or Howard’s Bay), located in the southwest corner of Upper Klamath Lake including Shoalwater Bay to the north and now all of Upper Klamath Lake. These areas of Upper Klamath Lake are located off Oregon Route 140, 15 miles west of Klamath Falls in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in Howard Bay. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Howard Bay and Shoalwater Bay at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Agency Lake, located just north of Klamath Falls along U.S. Highway 97 in Klamath County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the lake. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Agency Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Willow Creek Reservoir, located just east of the town of Heppner in Morrow County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae and the toxins they produce in the reservoir. These toxin concentrations can be harmful to humans and animals. People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue green or brownish red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur is discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified, or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins being produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people who have skin sensitivities that come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Willow Creek Reservoir at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Health Advisory remains in effect for Coffenbury Lake, located at Fort Stevens State Park about five miles northwest of US-101 ALT, Northwest Ridgefield Road near Warrenton in Clatsop County. Water monitoring has confirmed the presence of blue-green algae that can produce toxins in Coffenbury Lake. These blue-green algae levels are likely to be associated with dangerous cyanotoxin concentrations in the water that can be harmful to humans and animals.  People should always avoid areas with visible scum that looks foamy, scummy, thick like paint, pea-green, blue-green or brownish-red. Swimming and high-speed water activities such as water skiing or power boating where ingestion and inhalation exposure can occur are discouraged. Swallowing or inhaling water droplets as a result of these water activities in areas where a bloom has been identified or an advisory issued, can expose people to the toxins that can be produced. Although toxins are not absorbed through the skin, people with skin sensitivities who come into contact with a bloom may experience a puffy, red rash at the affected area. Drinking water directly from Coffenbury Lake at this time is especially dangerous. OHA Public Health Division officials advise campers and other recreational visitors that toxins cannot be removed by boiling, filtering or treating water with camping-style filters.
• A Permanent Health Advisory remains in effect for the South Umpqua River and Lawson Bar. Pools in the bedrock along the rivers edge are known to develop Blue-green Algae (cyanobacterial) blooms that can be harmful to pets and people if accidental ingestion occurs. Signs have been posted along several access areas along the river.

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Your College Football Forecast:

Saturday September 16th–

Ducks vs Wyoming, at War Memorial Stadium – Laramie, Wyoming– Kickoff: 4:00 PM PDT – Too early for an accurate weather forecast.

Beavers vs Washington State, at Martin Stadium – Pullman, Washington– Kickoff: 2:30 PM PDT- Too early for an accurate weather forecast.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

• AM clouds, mostly sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, mostly clear tonight,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Monday, clear at night,
• Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Tuesday, mostly clear in the evening, then mostly cloudy Tuesday night.
• highs 82-92 cooling to 84 Tuesday lows 49-55.
• A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler Wednesday and Thursday, partly cloudy both nights,
• A mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer Friday, then partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
• highs 74-69 warming to 76 Saturday lows near 48. (seasonal averages high 79 low 48)

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Forecast for Roseburg:

• AM clouds, sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, clear with patchy smoke tonight,
• Sunny with patchy smoke and a bit warmer Monday, mostly clear with patchy smoke Monday night,
• AM sun, partly cloudy with patchy smoke and a bit cooler Tuesday, partly cloudy with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night.
• highs 87-90 cooling back to 87 Tuesday lows 56-59 cooling back to 56 Tuesday night.
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler with patchy smoke and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Wednesday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening thunderstorms, mostly cloudy with patchy smoke late at night,
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler with patchy smoke Thursday and Thursday night,
• Partly cloudy with patchy smoke and a bit warmer Friday through Saturday.
• highs 78-70 warming back to 78 Saturday lows near 50. (seasonal averages high 80 low 52)

 

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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:

• Mostly cloudy this AM, sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, clear tonight,
• Sunny and a bit warmer Monday, mostly clear at night,
• AM sun, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon and at night.
• highs 68-72 cooling to 66 Tuesday lows 52-55.
• Partly cloudy and a bit cooler Wednesday, then partly cloudy Wednesday night through Saturday.
• highs near 64 lows 52-50. (seasonal averages high 65 low 51)

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

• Partly cloudy with patchy smoke this AM, mostly sunny and a bit warmer with areas of smoke this afternoon, mostly clear with areas of smoke tonight,
• Sunny and a bit warmer with areas of smoke Monday, clear in the evening, partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday night,
• Partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a slight (20%) chance of AM showers and thunderstorms, areas of smoke with a slight (20%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon and evening, partly cloudy with areas of smoke late Tuesday night.
• free air freezing level 15,000 ft. rising to 16,000 ft. today, 16,000 ft. tonight and Monday, 15,000 ft. Monday evening, then 13,000 ft. late Tuesday night.
• highs 72-82 cooling to 74 Tuesday lows 47-54 cooling back to 47 Tuesday night.
• Partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, partly cloudy with areas of smoke late at night,
• Partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a bit cooler Thursday and Thursday night,
• Partly cloudy with areas of smoke and a bit warmer Friday through Saturday.
• free air freezing level 13,000 ft. Wednesday AM, 11,000 ft. late Wednesday night, 11,000 ft. falling to 9,000 ft. Thursday afternoon, 9,000 ft. Thursday night and Friday, 9,000 ft. rising to 10,000 ft. late Friday night, the 10,000 ft. rising to 11,000 ft. Saturday afternoon.
• highs 65-54 warming to 64 Saturday lows 38-34 warming to 39 Friday night.

 

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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