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Tim Chuey Weather

Check out my latest Eugene Daily News Weather Or Not column:

http://eugenedailynews.com/2018/09/give-me-a-break-no-not-that-kind/

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Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is the “Gaussian Plume Model?”  Here is the correct answer. The Gaussian Plume Model is a computer model used to calculate air pollution concentrations. The model assumes that a pollutant plume is carried downwind from its emission source by a mean wind and that concentrations in the plume can be approximated by assuming that the highest concentrations occur on the horizontal and vertical midlines of the plume, with the distribution about these mid-lines characterized by Gaussian- or bell-shaped concentration profiles.  I’ll have a new weekly weather quiz question for you starting Monday. The first person to post the correct answer as a comment on this page will win a week of free personalized weather forecasts tailored to your needs. Good luck.

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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (Shaded “U” shape with arrows) takes over to encourage cool damp weather. The graphics for days 1-3 show the cold front that moved through the Pacific Northwest today and another front coming in Sunday night into Monday. The graphics for days 3-7  show frontal activity next Saturday.

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Air Quality Index:

Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 26 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 18 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.

Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 25 in the Good category measuring Ozone.

Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)

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ADVISORIES:

HEALTH ADVISORIES:

  • A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KENO DAM RESERVOIR LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KLAMATH FALLS ON OREGON HIGHWAY 66 W IN KLAMATH COUNTY. WATER MONITORING HAS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF CYANOBACTERIA AND THE TOXINS THEY PRODUCE IN KENO DAM RESERVOIR. THE CYANOTOXIN CONCENTRATIONS FOUND CAN BE HARMFUL TO TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH-SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES LIKE WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE CYNOTOXINS ARE IDENTIFIED. ALTHOUGH TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, PEOPLE WHO HAVE SKIN  SENSITIVITIES MAY EXPERIENCE A PUFFY RED RASH AT THE AFFECTED AREA. DRINKING WATER DIRECTLY FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS TOXINS CANNOT BE REMOVED BY ANY TECHNIQUE. DRINKING WATER DIRECTLY FROM THE RESERVOIR AT THIS TIME IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. ALSO THE TOXINS CAN NOT BE REMOVED BY BOILING, FILTERING OR TREATING WATER WITH CAMPING-STYLE FILTERS.
  • A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CULLABY, LOCATED JUST OFF OF HIGHWAY 101 BETWEEN ASTORIA AND SEASIDE IN CLATSOP COUNTY.   WATER MONITORING HAS CONFIRMED THE CYANOBACTERIA AND THE TOXINS THEY PRODUCE IN CULLABY LAKE. THE CYNOTOXIN CONCENTRATIONS FOUND CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH-SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES LIKE WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING IN AREAS OF THE LAKE WHERE CYNOTOXINS ARE IDENTIFIED. ALTHOUGH TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, PEOPLE WHO HAVE SKIN  SENSITIVITIES MAY EXPERIENCE A PUFFY RED RASH AT THE AFFECTED AREA. DRINKING WATER DIRECTLY FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS TOXINS CANNOT BE REMOVED BY ANY TECHNIQUE. DRINKING WATER DIRECTLY FROM CULLABY LAKE AT THIS TIME IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.
  • A PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL LEVELS OF BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH, LOCATED IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WATER SAMPLES INDICATE HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA, WHICH CAN CAUSE DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. THIS APPLIES ESPECIALLY TO CHILDREN AND THE ELDERLY, WHO MAY BE MORE VULNERABLE TO WATERBORN BACTERIA. WHILE THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT SEAL ROCK STATE PARK BEACH, VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN  DISCOLORED WATER, AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN. EVEN IF THERE IS NO ADVISORY IN EFFECT, OFFICIALS RECOMMEND AVOIDING SWIMMING IN THE OCEAN WITHIN 48 HOURS AFTER A RAINSTORM. OTHER BEACH ACTIVITIES ARE SAFE TO ENJOY.
  • A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WILLOW CREEK RESERVOIR, LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE TOWN OF HEPNER IN MORROW COUNTY.   WATER MONITORING HAS CONFIRMED THE CYANOBACTERIA AND THE TOXINS THEY PRODUCE ARE ABOVE RECREATIONAL VALUES FOR HUMAN EXPOSURE. THE CYNOTOXIN CONCENTRATIONS FOUND CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH-SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES LIKE WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING IN AREAS OF THE LAKE WHERE CYNOTOXINS ARE IDENTIFIED. ALTHOUGH TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, PEOPLE WHO HAVE SKIN  SENSITIVITIES MAY EXPERIENCE A PUFFY RED RASH AT THE AFFECTED AREA. DRINKING WATER DIRECTLY FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS TOXINS CANNOT BE REMOVED BY ANY TECHNIQUE.
  • A RECREATIONAL HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, LOCATED OFF ROUTE 140, 15 MILES WEST OF KLAMATH FALLS IN KLAMATH COUNTY.  WATER MONITORING HAS CONFIRMED THE CYANOBACTERIA AND THE TOXINS THEY PRODUCE ARE ABOVE RECREATIONAL VALUES FOR HUMAN EXPOSURE. THE CYNOTOXIN CONCENTRATIONS FOUND CAN BE HARMFUL TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH-SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES LIKE WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING IN AREAS OF THE LAKE WHERE CYNOTOXINS ARE IDENTIFIED. ALTHOUGH TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, PEOPLE WHO HAVE SKIN  SENSITIVITIES MAY EXPERIENCE A PUFFY RED RASH AT THE AFFECTED AREA. DRINKING WATER DIRECTLY FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS TOXINS CANNOT BE REMOVED BY ANY TECHNIQUE.
  • A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE  RIVER.

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:

  • Partly cloudy and a bit cooler tonight,
  • Partly cloudy Sunday, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of evening rain, rain becoming likely (70%) late at night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
  • Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Monday, a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday night,
  • Then mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Tuesday and at night.
  • lows 50-54 cooling to 50 Monday night warming to 52 Tuesday highs 76-72.
  • A mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a (40%) chance of showers Wednesday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday night,
  • A mix of clouds and sun with a slight (20%) chance of showers and a bit warmer Thursday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers at night,
  • Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers and a bit warmer Friday and Friday night,
  • Then partly cloudy and a bit warmer Saturday.
  • highs 72-75 lows near 48. (seasonal averages high 79 low 48)

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Your College Football Forecast    

Saturday September 15th:

Ducks vs San Jose State at Autzen Stadium – Kickoff: 2 pm PDT- Too soon for a Preliminary Forecast.

Beavers vs Nevada at  MacKay Stadium, Reno, NV – Kickoff: 4 pm PDT- Too soon for a Preliminary Forecast.

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Forecast for Roseburg:

  • Mostly clear tonight,
  • Partly cloudy Sunday AM, sunny and a bit cooler in the afternoon, mostly clear in the evening, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain late Sunday night,
  • Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy at night,
  • Then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.
  • lows 50-54 cooling to 52 Monday night highs 75-70 warming to 72 Tuesday.
  • Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Wednesday night through Thursday night,
  • Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, becoming sunny and a bit warmer Friday afternoon, clear at night,
  • Then sunny and a bit warmer Saturday.
  • highs 74-80 lows near 48. (seasonal averages high 81 low 53)

 

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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend,

  • Clear this evening, mostly cloudy with patchy fog and areas of coastal drizzle late tonight,
  • Mostly cloudy in the AM, mostly sunny Sunday afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain late Sunday night,
  • Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday, partly cloudy in the evening, mostly cloudy late at night,
  • Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Tuesday, then a (30%) chance of showers Tuesday night.
  • lows 50-55 cooling to 52 Monday night highs 66-63.
  • Mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers and a bit warmer Wednesday and in the evening, partly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers late Wednesday night,
  • Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Thursday afternoon and at night,
  • Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, becoming sunny Friday afternoon, then partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
  • highs near 64 lows near 50. (seasonal averages high 66 low 51)

 

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Forecast for the Cascades in Lane County:

  • Partly cloudy and a bit cooler tonight,
  • Mostly sunny and a bit warmer Sunday, partly cloudy in the evening with a good (50%) chance of rain, becoming cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain late Sunday night,
  • Cloudy with a (40%) chance of AM showers, a mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a (40%) chance of showers Monday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers at night,
  • Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Tuesday, then partly cloudy with a (40%) chance of showers Tuesday night.
  • free air freezing 13,000 ft. tonight and Sunday, snow level above 8,000 ft. Sunday night, 8,000 ft. Monday, then 7,000 ft. late Monday night through Tuesday night.
  • lows 42-36 highs 66-55.
  • A mix of clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of  showers Wednesday, partly cloudy with a (40%) chance of evening showers, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late at night,
  • Partly cloudy and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of showers Thursday and in the evening, just partly cloudy Thursday night,
  • Partly cloudy and a bit warmer Friday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Friday night and Saturday AM, then just partly cloudy Saturday afternoon.
  • snow level 7,000 ft. Wednesday, 7,500 ft. Wednesday night and Thursday, 7,000 ft. Thursday night, 8,000 ft. Friday, then 7,500 ft. Friday night and Saturday.
  • highs 55-62 lows 38-40.

 

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.

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Get your local Eugene-Springfield and Lane County news on-line at eugenedailynews.com.

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