Jul
21.
Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “Model Output Statistics (MOS)? ” Here is the correct answer. Model Output Statistics(abbrev. MOS) – the Hydrometeorological Center (HPC) produces a short range (6 to 60 hours) MOS (Model Output Statistics) guidance package generated from the NGM, GFS, and ETA models for over 300 individual stations in the continental United States. These alphanumeric messages are made available at approximately 0400 and 1600 UTC for the 0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles, respectively. Model Output Statistics are a set of statistical equations that use model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount for many cities across the USA. The statistical equations were specifically tailored for each location, taking into account factors such as each location’s climate.
________________
We’re between an Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (“Arch” shape) and an Upper Level Low Pressure Trough. The graphics for days 1-3 show a weak cold front approaching the coast Saturday. The graphics for days 3-7 Tuesday through Saturday show frontal activity pushing through Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday.
________________
Air Quality Index:
Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 28 in the Good category measuring Ozone.
Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 15 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 23 in the Good category measuring Ozone.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
________________
ADVISORIES:
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS AND MALHEUR COUNTY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR HARNEY COUNTY.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE BURNS BLM AND VALE BLM.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND LIGHTNING FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS.
- AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR CURRY COUNTY, JACKSON COUNTY, AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- THE PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY ISSUED FOR UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT TOLOVANA STATE PARK BEACH IN CLATSOP COUNTY HAS BEEN LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD STILL AVOID WADING IN LARGE POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, FROM HOWARD’S BAY SOUTH TO THE LINK RIVER DAM IN KLAMATH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE GALESVILLE RESERVOIR AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY.. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
__________
Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:,
- Some AM clouds, sunny and a bit cooler this afternoon, partly cloudy tonight,
- Mostly sunny Sunday, mostly clear at night,
- Mostly sunny start, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday afternoon and evening, then cloudy late Monday night.
- highs 87-82 lows 56-54 warming to 58 Monday night.
- AM clouds, sunny and a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon, mostly clear Tuesday night,
- Mostly sunny and slightly warmer Wednesday, clear at night,
- Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Thursday, clear Thursday night,
- Then sunny Friday.
- highs 84-87 cooling to 86 Thursday and Friday lows near 52. (seasonal averages high 86 low 52)
__________
Eugene-Springfield Pollen Count:
Grass Pollen: Low (4)
Weeds: Low (5)
Tree Pollen: Low (2)
Last counted: 7.19.23
Data courtesy of Oregon Allergy Associates.
__________
Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Some AM clouds, sunny this afternoon, mostly clear this evening, partly cloudy with patchy fog late tonight,
- Some AM clouds, sunny and a bit cooler Sunday afternoon, mostly clear with patchy fog late at night,
- Mostly sunny Monday, then mostly clear Monday night.
- highs 92-87 lows 60-57 warming back to 60 Monday night.
- Mostly sunny and a bit warmer Tuesday, clear Tuesday night,
- Sunny and a bit warmer Wednesday, clear at night,
- Then sunny Thursday and Friday, clear Thursday night.
- highs 88-89 cooling to 87 Friday lows near 56 (seasonal averages high 87 low 58)
___________
Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Some AM clouds with patchy fog, sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, mostly clear this evening, mostly cloudy with patchy fog late tonight,
- AM clouds and patchy fog, sunny and a bit cooler Sunday afternoon, mostly cloudy with patchy fog at night,
- AM clouds and patchy fog, partly cloudy and a bit warmer Monday afternoon, partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy late Monday night.
- highs 74-72 warming back to 74 Monday lows 55-58.
- Some AM clouds, sunny and hazy and a bit warmer Tuesday, mostly clear and hazy Tuesday night,
- Mostly sunny and hazy and a bit cooler Wednesday, mostly clear and hazy at night,
- Then mostly sunny and hazy Thursday and Friday, mostly clear Thursday.
- highs 75-73 lows near 55. (seasonal averages high 67 low 54)
__________
Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Mostly sunny today, partly cloudy tonight,
- Partly cloudy and a bit cooler Sunday, mostly clear at night,
- Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Monday, partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy late Monday night.
- free air freezing level 16,000 ft. today through Sunday night, then 14,000 ft. Monday, then 15,000 ft. Monday night.
- highs 76-70 lows 49-45.
- AM clouds and sun, sunny and a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon, mostly clear Tuesday night,
- Sunny and a bit warmer Wednesday, clear at night,
- Then sunny Thursday and Friday, clear Thursday night.
- free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Tuesday, 15,000 ft. Tuesday night, 14,000 ft. Wednesday, 15,000 ft. Wednesday night, then 14,000 ft. Thursday through Friday.
- highs 72-74 lows near 45.
__________
For all of your Eugene-Springfield and Lane County News, Weather, and Sports go to: EugeneDailyNews.com
_________