Jul
22.
Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “Model Output Statistics (MOS)? ” Here is the correct answer. Model Output Statistics (abbrev. MOS) – the Hydrometeorological Center (HPC) produces a short range (6 to 60 hours) MOS (Model Output Statistics) guidance package generated from the NGM, GFS, and ETA models for over 300 individual stations in the continental United States. These alphanumeric messages are made available at approximately 0400 and 1600 UTC for the 0000 and 1200 UTC forecast cycles, respectively. Model Output Statistics are a set of statistical equations that use model output to forecast the probability of precipitation, high and low temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation amount for many cities across the USA. The statistical equations were specifically tailored for each location, taking into account factors such as each location’s climate.
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We’re between an Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (“Arch” shape) and an Upper Level Low Pressure Trough. The graphics for days 1-3 show a weak cold front pushing through the Pacific Northwest. The graphics for days 3-7 Wednesday through Sunday show no frontal activity pushing into or through Oregon during the period.
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Air Quality Index:
Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 25 in the Good category measuring Ozone.
Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 10 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 19 in the Good category measuring Ozone.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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ADVISORIES:
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE KLAMATH BASIN AND AND THE FREEMONT-WINEMMA NATIONAL FOREST.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MDT TODAY UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY MDT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS , THE BURNS BLM, AND AND THE VALE BLM.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE OREGON LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS AND MALHEUR COUNTY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT FOR HARNEY COUNTY.
- AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR JEFFERSON AND WASCO COUNTY.
- AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MONDAY FOR CURRY COUNTY, JACKSON COUNTY, AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- THE PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY ISSUED FOR UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT TOLOVANA STATE PARK BEACH IN CLATSOP COUNTY HAS BEEN LIFTED. VISITORS SHOULD STILL AVOID WADING IN LARGE POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, FROM HOWARD’S BAY SOUTH TO THE LINK RIVER DAM IN KLAMATH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE GALESVILLE RESERVOIR AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY.. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Sunny and a bit cooler today, clear this evening, partly cloudy late tonight,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday and in the evening, a (40%) chance of showers late at night,
- AM clouds, sunny Tuesday afternoon, then clear Tuesday night.
- highs 89-77 warming to 86 Tuesday lows 53-60 cooling back to 53 Tuesday night.
- Sunny and a bit warmer Wednesday, clear Wednesday night,
- Sunny Thursday and Friday, clear both nights,
- Then mostly sunny Saturday.
- highs near 87 lows near 52. (seasonal averages high 86 low 52)
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Eugene-Springfield Pollen Count:
Grass Pollen: Low (4)
Weeds: Low (5)
Tree Pollen: Low (2)
Last counted: 7.19.23
Data courtesy of Oregon Allergy Associates.
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Some AM haze, sunny and a bit cooler this afternoon, mostly clear and hazy tonight,
- AM sun and haze, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday afternoon, partly cloudy at night,
- Some AM clouds, sunny and a bit warmer Tuesday afternoon, then clear Tuesday night.
- highs 90-86 warming to 88 Tuesday lows 55-60 cooling to 56 Tuesday night.
- Sunny Wednesday, clear Wednesday night,
- Sunny and a bit cooler Thursday, clear at night,
- Then sunny and a bit warmer Friday and Saturday, clear Friday night.
- highs 88-83 warming to 88 Saturday lows near 55 (seasonal averages high 88 low 58)
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- AM clouds and patchy fog, sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, mostly clear and hazy this evening, partly cloudy tonight,
- Partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM coastal showers and mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of coastal showers in the afternoon while AM inland sun and partly cloudy a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of inland showers Monday afternoon, mostly cloudy in the evening, partly cloudy late at night,
- Some AM clouds, sunny Tuesday afternoon, then mostly clear Tuesday night.
- highs 72-74 lows 55-59 cooling to 54 Tuesday night.
- Mostly sunny and a bit cooler Wednesday, mostly clear Wednesday night,
- Then mostly sunny Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, mostly clear each night.
- highs near 73 lows 55-53 warming back to 55 Friday night. (seasonal averages high 67 low 54)
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Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Partly cloudy and a bit cooler today, mostly clear tonight, becoming hazy late,
- Mostly sunny and hazy start, partly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday night,
- Some AM clouds, sunny Tuesday afternoon, then clear Tuesday night.
- free air freezing level 16,000 ft. today, 15,000 ft. tonight, 15,000 ft. falling to 13,000 ft. Monday afternoon, 1snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday night, free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Tuesday, then 15,000 ft. Tuesday night.
- highs 79-72 lows near 46.
- Sunny and a bit warmer Wednesday, clear Wednesday night,
- Sunny Thursday and Friday, clear both nights nights,
- Then sunny Saturday.
- free air freezing level 14,000 ft. Wednesday through through Friday night, then 13,000 ft. Saturday.
- highs near 75 lows near 45.
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For all of your Eugene-Springfield and Lane County News, Weather, and Sports go to: EugeneDailyNews.com
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