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Today is Groundhog Day! Did “Phil” see his shadow in the snow? No “Punxsutawney Phil” did not see his shadow. That is supposed to give a forecast of an early sporing. I surveyed reports from 15 groundhogs across the country (most of them in the Northeast and one in Ontario, Canada) and 10 did not see their shadows while 5 did. That means 10 predicted an early spring and 5 said we’ll see 6 more weeks of winter. What does all of this mean? Not much, but it is a diversion from the stormy weather across over half of the United States.

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The jet stream shows a high pressure ridge ( “arch” shaped area) aiming the airflow straight South toward the Pacific Northwest. That cleared the skies and allows for colder nights, but lots of  daytime sunshine. Remember that, particularly this time of the year, when it’s not raining it is usually fogging and we’ve had some pretty dense fog lately.

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Advisories:  AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY INCLUDING ROSEBURG, EASTERN CURRY COUNTY, JOSEPHINE COUNTY, JACKSON COUNTY, THE KLAMATH BASIN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY.

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Here are your detailed forecasts. **

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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer today, mostly clear tonight, a mix of clouds and sun Thursday, partly cloudy Thursday night, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Friday and Friday night highs 48-57 lows 24-39. Mostly cloudy Saturday with a slight (20%) chance of rain Saturday through Sunday night, mostly cloudy Monday, partly cloudy Monday night, and then a mix of clouds and sun Tuesday highs 57-49 lows 39-32. (seasonal  averages high 49 low 34)

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Forecast for the Umpqua Basin including, Roseburg: Sunny today, mostly clear tonight,  sunny with patchy fog and freezing fog Thursday AM, partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday night highs 53-60 lows 30-40. Just mostly cloudy Saturday,  partly cloudy Saturday night, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday, then just mostly cloudy Sunday night through Monday night, and partly cloudy Tuesday highs 57-52 lows 42-35. (seasonal averages high 53 low 36)

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Forecast for the South Oregon Coast including Coos Bay and North Bend: Partly cloudy this AM, sunny this afternoon, partly cloudy this evening, mostly clear tonight, mostly sunny early AM, then partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday night, highs near 55 lows 35-45. Mostly cloudy Saturday, partly cloudy Saturday night, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday evening, and just mostly cloudy Monday, and partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday highs 57-52 lows 44-37. (seasonal averages high 54 low 40).

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Forecast for the Cascades of Lane County: Mostly sunny today, mostly clear tonight, a mix of clouds and sun Thursday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%)  chance of rain  mainly North of Hwy 126 Thursday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible) and Friday (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain, mainly North of Mt. Jefferson, Friday night free air freezing level 5,000 ft. rising to 8,000 ft. this afternoon and tonight, rising to 9,000 ft. Thursday, snow level 8,000 ft. Thursday night and  Friday,  7,000 ft. Friday night highs 38-48 lows 23-32. Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain, mainly North of Mt. Jefferson again, Saturday, a (30%) chance of rain Saturday night, a slight (20%) chance of rain Sunday, a slight (20%) chance of of rain or snow Sunday night, then just mostly cloudy Monday through Tuesday snow level 7,500 ft. Saturday, 7,000 ft. Saturday night, 6,000 ft. Sunday, falling to 4,500 ft. Sunday night, free air freezing level rising to 7,000 ft. Monday, down to 6,000 ft. Monday night,  and back up to 11,000 ft. Tuesday highs 48-38 lows 30-24.

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**Because weather forecasting is a combination of science, intuition, and timing there can be no absolute guarantees that individual forecasts will be 100% accurate. Nature is in a constant state of flux and sudden unexpected weather events can happen.