Jan
27.
Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “PDO“? Here is the correct answer. PDO is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation – a recently described pattern of climate variation similar to ENSO though on a timescale of decades and not seasons. It is characterized by SST anomalies of one sign in the north-central Pacific and SST anomalies of another sign to the north and east near the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska. It primarily affects weather patterns and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and northern Pacific Islands. Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO “events” persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics- the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies found evidence of just two full PDO cycles in the past century: cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990’s. Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known.
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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (“U” shape) is still controlling the weather over the Pacific Northwest along with a southerly airflow Atmospheric River. The graphics for days 1-3 show the complex frontal system moving through Oregon, warm front first followed by the cold front. The graphics for days 3-7 Wednesday through Sunday show a the parade of complex frontal systems approaching the Pacific Northwest. There will be a cold front right along the coast Wednesday moving in Wednesday through next Friday.
Note: Willamette Pass, Hoodoo, and Mt Ashland are all open for skiing. Check their web pages for details.
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Air Quality Index:
Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 28 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 35 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 54 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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ADVISORIES:
- A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE TUALATIN RIVER AT FARMINGTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY AND THE LUCKIAMUTE RIVER NEAR SUVER AFFECTING BENTON AND POLK COUNTIES.
- A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE PUDDING RIVER AT AURORA AFFECTING CLACKAMAS COUNTY AND AND MARION COUNTY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE AFFECTING THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST ZONE.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TODAY FOR THE GRANDE RONDE VALLEY.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- A PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT BEVERLY BEACH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA CAN CAUSE DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, AND THOSE WITH A COMPROMISED IMMUNE SYSTEM SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AS THEY ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO TO ILLNESSES FROM WATERBORNE BACTERIA. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER, AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE AREA FROM THE ROSS ISLAND LAGOON TO RIVERPLACE MARINA IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CATCH AND RELEASE FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS. DRINKING WATER FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WILLAMETTE RIVER FROM ROSS ISLAND DOWNSTREAM (NORTH) TO THE AREA NEAR CATHEDRAL PARK IN PORTLAND, IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.DO NOT DRINK THE WATER.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ARRONS LAKE, BUT HAS BEEN LIFTED FOR PETE’S SLOUGH AND STURGEON LAKE ON SAUVIE ISLAND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AGENCY LAKE AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, FROM HOWARD’S BAY SOUTH TO THE LINK RIVER DAM IN KLAMATH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of AM showers (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), a mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer this afternoon, partly cloudy with patchy fog late tonight,
- Patchy AM fog, mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of rain Monday afternoon, a good (50%) chance of rain Monday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a good (50%) of rain Tuesday, then rain Tuesday night.
- highs 66-60 lows 48-50.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Thursday, rain likely (70%) at night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain likely (70%) and a bit cooler Friday, a good (50%) chance of rain Friday night with a (30%) chance of snow late Friday night,
- Clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of AM snow, a mix of clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of of rain Saturday afternoon (snow level 1,500 ft.)
- highs 56-44 lows 42-33. (seasonal averages high 49 low 35)
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Home Wood Heating Advisory:
Eugene-Springfield: GREEN- Burning wood in wood stoves or fireplaces is allowed.
Oakridge: GREEN- Burning wood in wood stoves or fireplaces is allowed.
*Pellet stoves can be used anytime since they don’t produce the particulate smoke.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of AM rain (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, mostly clear this evening, mostly cloudy late tonight,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of rain Monday afternoon and evening, a (30%) chance of showers late Monday night,
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Tuesday, cloudy with evening showers likely (70%), then showers late Tuesday night.
- highs 69-63 lows 47-52.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with showers Thursday and breezy, evening, rain and snow showers, rain and snow showers late at night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers likely (70%) and a bit cooler Friday afternoon and evening, a good (50%) chance of rain and snow showers Friday night,
- Then mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain and snow showers Saturday.
- highs 58-46 lows 44-36. (seasonal averages high 51 low 37).
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Partly cloudy with a (30%) chance of AM coastal rain while partly cloudy with a (30%) chance of inland AM rain and just partly cloudy and a bit warmer this afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), mostly sunny and a bit warmer this afternoon, mostly clear this evening, mostly cloudy late tonight,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of rain Monday afternoon, cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Monday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of AM showers, showers likely (70%) and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon and evening, then showers and breezy late Tuesday night.
- highs 68-64 lows near 52.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with showers and breezy Wednesday, showers and cooler Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with showers and cooler Thursday, showers at night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with showers Friday, rain and snow showers likely (70%) Friday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with rain and snow showers likely (70%) Saturday.
- highs 59-50 warming to 52 Saturday lows 43-37. (seasonal averages high 54 low 41)
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Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Clouds and sun with AM rain likely (70%), a mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of rain this afternoon, just partly cloudy tonight (0.10 in. of rain possible),
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a (30%) chance of rain Monday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Monday night,
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a good (50%) of rain Tuesday, then mostly cloudy with rain Tuesday night.
- snow level above 8,000 ft. today, free air freezing level 10,000 ft. tonight, then snow level above 8,000 ft. Monday, 7,500 ft. Monday night and Tuesday, then 8,000 ft. Tuesday night.
- highs 47-50 cooling to 42 Tuesday lows near 38.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain and snow Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with snow and rain Thursday, snow and rain at night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with snow and rain Friday, evening snow and rain likely (70%), a (40%) chance of snow and rain late Friday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with snow and rain likely (70%) Saturday.
- snow level 7,000 ft. Wednesday, 5,000 ft. Wednesday night, 4,000 ft. Thursday, 3,000 ft. Thursday night, 2,000 ft. Friday and Friday night, then 1,500 ft. Saturday.
- highs 42-28 lows 30-22.
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