Jan
28.
Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is “PDO“? Here is the correct answer. PDO is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation – a recently described pattern of climate variation similar to ENSO though on a timescale of decades and not seasons. It is characterized by SST anomalies of one sign in the north-central Pacific and SST anomalies of another sign to the north and east near the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska. It primarily affects weather patterns and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and northern Pacific Islands. Two main characteristics distinguish PDO from El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): first, 20th century PDO “events” persisted for 20-to-30 years, while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months; second, the climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector, while secondary signatures exist in the tropics- the opposite is true for ENSO. Several independent studies found evidence of just two full PDO cycles in the past century: cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890-1924 and again from 1947-1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925-1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990’s. Causes for the PDO are not currently known. Likewise, the potential predictability for this climate oscillation are not known.
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An Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (“Arch” shape) is helping to pump unseasonably warm air over the Pacific Northwest. The graphics for days 1-3 show the complex frontal system that hangs up along the coast. The graphics for days 3-7 Wednesday through Sunday show a the parade of complex frontal systems approaching the Pacific Northwest.
Note: Willamette Pass, Hoodoo, and Mt Ashland are all open for skiing. Check their web pages for details.
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Air Quality Index:
Eugene/Springfield: The Air Quality Index is 48 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Oakridge: The Air Quality Index is 36 in the Good category measuring Particulate Matter.
Cottage Grove: The Air Quality Index is 81 in the Moderate category measuring Particulate Matter.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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ADVISORIES:
- A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE TUALATIN RIVER AT FARMINGTON AFFECTING WASHINGTON COUNTY, THE LUCKIAMUTE RIVER NEAR SUVER AFFECTING BENTON AND POLK COUNTIES, AND THE PUDDING RIVER AT AURORA AFFECTING CLACKAMAS COUNTY AND AND MARION COUNTY.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE AFFECTING THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST ZONE.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR JACKSON COUNTY, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, THE KLAMATH BASIN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY, AND WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND THE CURRY COUNTY COAST.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- A PUBLIC HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA IN OCEAN WATERS AT BEVERLY BEACH IN LINCOLN COUNTY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE WATER IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS LIFTED. UNSAFE LEVELS OF FECAL BACTERIA CAN CAUSE DIARRHEA, STOMACH CRAMPS, SKIN RASHES, UPPER RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS AND OTHER ILLNESSES. CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, AND THOSE WITH A COMPROMISED IMMUNE SYSTEM SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AS THEY ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO TO ILLNESSES FROM WATERBORNE BACTERIA. VISITORS SHOULD AVOID WADING IN NEARBY CREEKS, POOLS OF WATER ON THE BEACH, OR IN DISCOLORED WATER, AND STAY CLEAR OF WATER RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE OCEAN.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE AREA FROM THE ROSS ISLAND LAGOON TO RIVERPLACE MARINA IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CATCH AND RELEASE FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS. DRINKING WATER FROM THE LAKE IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WILLAMETTE RIVER FROM ROSS ISLAND DOWNSTREAM (NORTH) TO THE AREA NEAR CATHEDRAL PARK IN PORTLAND, IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.DO NOT DRINK THE WATER.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ARRONS LAKE, BUT HAS BEEN LIFTED FOR PETE’S SLOUGH AND STURGEON LAKE ON SAUVIE ISLAND DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE LAKE AND SLOUGH WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT THE AREA AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A RECREATIONAL USE HEALTH ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AGENCY LAKE AND EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER KLAMATH LAKE, FROM HOWARD’S BAY SOUTH TO THE LINK RIVER DAM IN KLAMATH COUNTY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CYANOBACTERIA BLOOM. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID SWIMMING AND HIGH SPEED WATER ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS WATER SKIING OR POWER BOATING, IN AREAS OF THE RESERVOIR WHERE BLOOMS ARE, AS THE MAJOR ROUTE OF EXPOSURE IS INGESTION OF WATER. TOXINS ARE NOT ABSORBED THROUGH THE SKIN, HOWEVER, THOSE WITH SKIN SENSITIVITIES MAY GET A PUFFY RED RASH. THE OREGON HEALTH AUTHORITY ENCOURAGES PEOPLE TO VISIT AND ENJOY ACTIVITIES SUCH AS FISHING, CAMPING, HIKING, BILKING, PICNICKING, BIRD WATCHING, CANOEING, AND KAYAKING. BOATING IS SAFE AS LONG AS SPEEDS DO NOT CREATE EXCESSIVE WATER SPRAY. SPRAYS COULD LEAD TO THE RISK OF INHALING CYANOTOXINS.
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
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Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Partly cloudy this evening, mostly cloudy with areas of fog late tonight,
- Clouds and sun with patchy AM fog, a mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of rain Monday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, a good (50%) chance of showers late Monday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, a bit cooler with a good (50%) of showers Tuesday afternoon, rain late at night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, then rain likely (70%) Wednesday night.
- lows 47-52 cooling to 44 Wednesday night highs 62-58.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain likely (70%) Thursday, rain likely (70%) Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain likely (70%) and a bit cooler Friday, a good (50%) chance of rain at night,
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a good (50%) chance of of rain Saturday, partly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain Saturday night with patchy fog late,
- Patchy AM fog, then a mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a (40%) chance of rain Sunday afternoon.
- highs 52-45 lows 39-32. (seasonal averages high 49 low 35)
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Home Wood Heating Advisory:
Eugene-Springfield: GREEN- Burning wood in wood stoves or fireplaces is allowed.
Oakridge: GREEN- Burning wood in wood stoves or fireplaces is allowed.
*Pellet stoves can be used anytime since they don’t produce the particulate smoke.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Mostly clear this evening, mostly cloudy late tonight,
- Patchy dense AM fog, mostly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday afternoon, a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday night,
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Tuesday, a good (50%) chance of evening showers, rain late at night (under 0o.10 in. of rain possible) and breezy (Wind: SE 15-25 mph gusts to 40 mph),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, then rain Wednesday night.
- lows 49-53 cooling to 46 Wednesday night highs 67-60.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain and breezy Thursday, rain likely (70%) Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and snow and a bit cooler Friday, evening rain and snow likely (70%), a good (50%) chance of rain and snow late at night,
- Mostly cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain and snow Saturday, a (30%) chance of showers Saturday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of rain and snow Sunday.
- highs 53-47 lows 40-34. (seasonal averages high 51 low 37).
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Partly cloudy this evening, becoming mostly cloudy late tonight,
- Patchy dense AM fog, mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with a slight (20%) chance of coastal showers Monday afternoon while just mostly cloudy inland Monday, a (30%) chance of showers Monday night (under 0.10 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of showers and a bit cooler Tuesday afternoon and evening, cloudy with coastal showers late at night (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain and windy Wednesday, then rain Wednesday night.
- lows 52-46 highs 67-60.
- Mostly cloudy with showers and cooler Thursday, rain Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Friday, rain likely (70%) at night,
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Saturday and in the evening, a (40%) chance of rain and snow late Saturday night,
- Then mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Sunday.
- highs 54-52 lows 42-36. (seasonal averages high 54 low 41)
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Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Partly cloudy tonight,
- Partly cloudy and a bit cooler Monday, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers Monday night,
- Mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers, a bit cooler with a (40%) of rain Tuesday afternoon, rain at night and windy at night (Pass Wind: SE 20-30 mph gusts to 50 mph),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday and in the evening, then rain likely (70%) with snow late Wednesday night.
- free air freezing level 10,000 ft. rising to 11,000 ft. tonight, 11,000 ft. Monday, snow level above 8,000 ft. falling to 7,500 ft. Monday night, 7,500 ft. Tuesday afternoon, 8,000 ft. Tuesday night, 7,000 ft. Wednesday, then 5,500 ft. Wednesday night.
- lows 37-40 cooling to 33 Wednesday night highs 52-43.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain and snow Thursday, rain likely (70%) Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with snow and rain Friday, evening snow and rain likely (70%), partly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of snow and rain late at night,
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit cooler with a good (50%) chance of snow and rain Saturday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of snow and rain Saturday night,
- A mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a good (50%) chance of snow and rain Sunday.
- snow level 4,000 ft. Thursday, 4,000 ft. Thursday night, 3,000 ft. Friday , 2,500 ft. Friday night, 2,000 ft. Saturday, 2,500 ft. Saturday night, then 2,000 ft. Sunday.
- highs 37-30 warming to 32 Sunday lows 26-20.
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