Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is a “Super Cell Thunderstorm “? Here is the correct answer. A Supercell Thunderstorm is potentially the most dangerous of the convective storm types. Storms possessing this structure have been observed to generate the vast majority of long-lived strong and violent (F2-F5) tornadoes, as well as downburst damage and large hail. It is defined as a thunderstorm consisting of one quasi-steady to rotating updraft which may exist for several hours. Supercells usually move to the right of the mean wind. These are called “Right Movers” and they are favored with veering winds. Occasionally, these thunderstorms will move to the left of the mean wind. These thunderstorms are called “Left Movers”. These supercells typically don’t last as long as their “Right Mover” cousins and they usually only produce large hail (greater than 3/4 inch in diameter) and severe wind gusts in the excess of 58 miles an hour. Left Movers are favored when you have backing winds.
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An Upper Level High Pressure Ridge (“Arch” shape) will dry us out for a while. The graphics for days 1-3 show a complex frontal system moving into Oregon today. The graphics for days 3-7 Tuesday through Saturday show complex frontal system moving northeastward through the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A complex frontal system will slide through Oregon Wednesday and Thursday. Then a complex frontal system will be along the coast Friday and moving in next Saturday.
Note: Lane County residents will have to wait until Friday, November 1, 2024, at the earliest for the opening of the fall outdoor burning season. The season is typically scheduled to start on October 1st each year. However, the decision to delay has been jointly made by the Lane County Fire Defense Board and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).
ADVISORIES:
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM TODAY FOR THE CLATSOP COUNTY COAST AND THE TILLAMOOK COUNTY COAST.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- A mix of clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of AM showers, rain and warmer this afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), rain tonight (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain, cooler with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday (0.25 in. of rain possible), evening showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms, rain late Sunday night (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday, then showers with slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday night.
- highs 72-57 lows 50-42.
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain likely (70%), a good (50%) chance of showers and a bit warmer Tuesday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and a bit cooler Wednesday, rain at night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain Thursday (Halloween), rain Thursday night,
- Then a mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with a (40%) chance of showers Friday.
- highs 58-54 warming to 56 Friday lows near 40. (seasonal averages high 60 low 40)
Your College Football Weather Forecast:
Saturday October 26:
Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini at Autzen Stadium, Game time: 12:30 pm- Weather forecast: Increasing clouds 58 degrees showers changing to afternoon rain,warming to 72 by the end of the game. (It never rains at Autzen Stadium, but it pours. Be prepared. Dress appropriately.)
Beavers vs Cal Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley California: Game time 7:00 pm- Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds 68 degrees and cooling throughout the game.
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HOME WOOD HEATING ADVISORY:
Eugene & Springfield: GREEN – Fireplace and wood stove use permitted.
Oakridge and Westfir: GREEN – Fireplace and wood stove use permitted.
The use of pellet stoves is always allowed.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA.org)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Mostly cloudy with a (30%) chance of rain and slightly warmer today (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), evening rain with a slight (20%) thunderstorms, showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms late tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy and cooler with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday (0.25 in. of rain possible), showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday night (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday, evening showers, then showers likely (70%) late Monday night.
- highs 74-57 lows 54-44.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening showers, mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of showers late Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with a (30%) chance of rain Wednesday, showers Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a bit cooler Thursday (Halloween), evening showers, a good (50%) chance of showers late Thursday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with a (40%) chance of showers Friday.
- highs 58-55 warming to 59 Friday lows 42-43 cooling to 40 Thursday night. (seasonal averages high 62 low 44)
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of AM rain, rain and slightly cooler this afternoon (0.25 in. of rain possible), showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms tonight (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and cooler Sunday (0.25 in. of rain possible), showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday night (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and a bit warmer Monday, evening showers, a good (50%) chance of showers late Monday night.
- highs 72-60 warming to 63 Monday lows 50-44.
- Mostly cloudy with patchy AM fog, a good (50%) chance of showers Tuesday afternoon, mostly cloudy with a (40%) showers Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain and a bit cooler Wednesday, showers at night,
- Mostly cloudy with showers Thursday (Halloween), evening showers likely (70%), a good (50%) chance of showers Thursday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with a good (50%) chance of showers Friday.
- highs 63-62 warming to 64 Friday lows 45-42. (seasonal average high 61 low 46).
Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Mostly sunny with a slight (20%) chance of AM showers likely (70%), mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain likely (70%) this afternoon (under 0.10 in. of rain possible), rain tonight (0.75 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy and cooler with rain Sunday (snow possibly heavy at times), a slight (20%) chance of evening thunderstorms, rain and snow Sunday night (snow possibly heavy at times),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain and snow Monday, then rain and snow Monday night.
- highs 59-35 lows 37-29.
- snow level above 8,000 ft. today and tonight, 5,500 ft. Sunday, 5,000 ft. Sunday night, then 4,500 ft. Monday and Monday night.
- highs 62-44 warming to 49 Tuesday lows 37-27.
- Cloudy with AM rain and snow, a mix of clouds and sun and a bit warmer with rain and snow Tuesday, a slight (20%) chance of rain and snow Tuesday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer Wednesday with rain likely (70%) and a (40%) chance snow, rain and snow Wednesday night (snow possibly heavy at times),
- Mostly cloudy with rain and snow (snow possibly heavy at times) and a bit cooler Thursday (Halloween), a good (50%) chance of rain and snow Thursday night,
- Then a mix of clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of rain and snow showers Friday.
- snow level 4,000 ft. Tuesday, 4,500 ft. Tuesday night, 5,000 ft. Wednesday, 4,500 ft. Wednesday night, 4,000 ft. Thursday and Thursday night, then 4,500 ft. Friday.
- highs 36-38 Wednesday cooling to 33 Thursday warming to 36 Friday lows 25-27 cooling back to 25 Thursday night.