Here is my weekly weather quiz question for the last time. What is a “Super Cell Thunderstorm “? Here is the correct answer. A Supercell Thunderstorm is potentially the most dangerous of the convective storm types. Storms possessing this structure have been observed to generate the vast majority of long-lived strong and violent (F2-F5) tornadoes, as well as downburst damage and large hail. It is defined as a thunderstorm consisting of one quasi-steady to rotating updraft which may exist for several hours. Supercells usually move to the right of the mean wind. These are called “Right Movers” and they are favored with veering winds. Occasionally, these thunderstorms will move to the left of the mean wind. These thunderstorms are called “Left Movers”. These supercells typically don’t last as long as their “Right Mover” cousins and they usually only produce large hail (greater than 3/4 inch in diameter) and severe wind gusts in the excess of 58 miles an hour. Left Movers are favored when you have backing winds.
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An Upper Level Low Pressure Trough (“U” shape) takes over. The graphics for days 1-3 show a complex frontal system moving into Oregon late tonight and Sunday. The graphics for days 3-7 Tuesday through Saturday show complex frontal system moving northeastward through the Pacific Northwest Sunday. A complex frontal system will slide through Oregon Wednesday and Thursday. Then a complex frontal system will be moving in between Friday and next Saturday.
Note: Lane County residents will have to wait until Friday, November 1, 2024, at the earliest for the opening of the fall outdoor burning season. The season is typically scheduled to start on October 1st each year. However, the decision to delay has been jointly made by the Lane County Fire Defense Board and the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF).
ADVISORIES:
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY.
HEALTH ADVISORIES:
- A PERMANENT HEALTH ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH UMPQUA RIVER BAR. POOLS IN THE BEDROCK ALONG THE RIVERS EDGE ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP BLUE-GREEN ALGAE (CYANOBACTERIAL) BLOOMS THAT CAN BE HARMFUL TO PETS AND PEOPLE IF ACCIDENTAL INGESTION OCCURS. SIGNS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG SEVERAL ACCESS AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.
Forecast for the Southern and lower Mid Willamette Valley including Eugene-Springfield and Albany-Corvallis:
- Mostly cloudy with rain tonight (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- AM clouds and sun with a good (50%) chance of showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms, showers and cooler Sunday afternoon (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms), showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday night (0.25 in. of rain possible, more in storms),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday, showers Monday night,
- Mostly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of rain Tuesday, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening rain, then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain late Tuesday night.
- lows 50-40 highs 62-57.
- Mostly cloudy with rain and a bit cooler Wednesday, rain Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain Thursday (Halloween), rain at night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain likely (70%) and a bit warmer Friday, rain likely (70%) Friday night,
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain likely (70%), then partly cloudy with rain likely (70%) Saturday afternoon.
- highs 54-56 lows 42-40. (seasonal averages high 60 low 40)
Your College Football Weather Forecast:
Saturday October 26:
Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini at Autzen Stadium, Game time: 12:30 pm- The Ducks beat up on Illinois 38-9.
Beavers vs Cal Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley California: Game time 7:00 pm- Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy with increasing clouds 68 degrees and cooling throughout the game.
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HOME WOOD HEATING ADVISORY:
Eugene & Springfield: GREEN – Fireplace and wood stove use permitted.
Oakridge and Westfir: GREEN – Fireplace and wood stove use permitted.
The use of pellet stoves is always allowed.
Data courtesy of Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA.org)
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Forecast for the Umpqua Valley including Roseburg:
- Partly cloudy with a good (50%) chance of evening rain, rain late tonight (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with AM showers, much cooler with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon (0.25 in. of rain possible), showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday night (0.25 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a bit cooler with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Monday, evening showers with a slight (20%) of thunderstorms, then showers likely (70%) with patchy fog late Monday night,
- Mostly cloudy with AM fog and showers likely (70%), partly cloudy with showers likely (70%) Tuesday afternoon, partly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of evening rain, then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain late Tuesday night.
- lows 53-48 cooling to 42 Tuesday night highs 63-58.
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain Wednesday, rain Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and a bit cooler Thursday (Halloween), evening rain, rain likely (70%) late Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with rain likely (70%) Friday, rain likely (70%) Friday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with rain likely (70%) Saturday.
- highs 57-54 warming to 59 Saturday lows 42-44. (seasonal averages high 62 low 43)
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Forecast for The South Oregon Coast Including Coos Bay and North Bend:
- Mostly cloudy with early evening coastal rain likely (70%) while a good (50%) chance of early evening rain, rain late tonight (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with AM showers, showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and a bit cooler Sunday afternoon (0.25 in. of rain possible), showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms Sunday night (0.50 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with showers and a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms and a bit cooler Monday, evening showers with a slight (20%) chance of thunderstorms, showers likely (70%) late Monday night with patchy coastal fog late,
- Mostly cloudy with patchy AM fog and showers likely (70%), partly cloudy and a bit warmer with a (50%) chance of showers Tuesday afternoon, then mostly cloudy with a (40%) rain Tuesday night.
- lows 52-44 highs 66-63 warming to 64 Tuesday.
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain likely (70%), rain and a bit cooler Wednesday afternoon, rain Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain Thursday (Halloween), evening rain, rain likely (70%) late Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer rain likely (70%) Friday, evening rain, rain likely (70%) late Friday night,
- Mostly cloudy with AM rain likely (70%), then a good (50%) chance of rain Saturday afternoon.
- highs 62-63 lows 45-46 cooling to 44 Saturday. (seasonal average high 61 low 46).
Forecast for the Northern Oregon Cascades including the Cascades in Lane County:
- Mostly cloudy with rain late tonight (0.75 in. of rain possible),
- Mostly cloudy with AM showers and snow showers, a mix of clouds and sun and cooler with rain and snow showers Sunday afternoon (0.75 in. of rain possible, 1 in. of snow possible, snow possibly heavy at times), rain and snow showers Sunday night (0.75 in. of rain possible, 1 in. of snow possible, snow possibly heavy at times),
- Mostly cloudy and a bit cooler with rain and snow showers Monday, then showers and snow snow showers Monday night,
- Cloudy with a (40%) chance of rain and snow and a bit warmer Tuesday, then mostly cloudy with a slight (20%) chance of rain and snow Tuesday night.
- highs 59-35 lows 37-29.
- snow level above 8,000 ft. tonight, 5,500 ft. Sunday, 5,000 ft. Sunday night, then 4,500 ft. Monday and Monday night, 4,000 ft. Tuesday, then 4,500 ft. Tuesday night.
- lows 37-27 highs 62-44 warming to 49 Tuesday .
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer Wednesday with rain and snow, rain and snow Wednesday night,
- Mostly cloudy with rain and snow (snow possibly heavy at times) and a bit cooler Thursday (Halloween), rain and snow likely (70%) Thursday night,
- Mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with rain and snow likely (70%) Friday, rain and snow likely (70%) Friday night,
- Then mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with rain and snow likely (70%) Saturday.
- snow level 5,000 ft. Wednesday, 4,500 ft. Wednesday night, 4,000 ft. Thursday, 4,500 ft. Thursday night and Friday, 5,500 ft. Friday night, then 5,000 ft. Saturday.
- highs 36-38 Wednesday cooling to 33 Thursday warming to 36 Friday lows 25-27 cooling back to 25 Thursday night.